000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052131
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N97W to 11N115W to
07N128W. The ITCZ extends from 07N128W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 14N and E of 
97W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to
12N between 100W and 113W, and from 08N to 13N between 113W and 
119W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge is located west of the Baja California 
peninsula. This, combined with climatologically lower pressures 
over Mexico, is supporting fresh NW winds across the offshore
waters N of Punta Abreojos and moderate to locally fresh NW 
winds elsewhere offshore the remaining peninsula. Seas of 5-7 ft 
in NW swell remain along the peninsula offshore waters. Light to
gentle SE winds are along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 
ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 4-5 ft range 
dominate the remainder Mexican offshore waters in decaying SW 
swell.

For the forecast, low pressure along western Mexico will deepen 
tonight through Tue. This will tighten the pressure gradient 
across the region and support pulsing fresh to strong NW winds
across the offshore waters N of Punta Abreojos. Afterward, moderate
to locally fresh NW winds can be expected across the remainder 
Baja peninsula through Thu morning. Seas along the Baja offshores 
will range from 5-7 ft through Wed and then will gradually
subside through Thu. Gentle to moderate SE winds are forecast 
along the Gulf of California through Thu with seas to 3 ft while
light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft are expected 
elsewhere. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will
start affecting portions of the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshore
waters on Wed night through Thu evening as new swell long period
swell approaches that region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW winds are over portions of the Nicaragua, 
Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters with seas to 5 
ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate S winds are also between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 5 ft in S to SW swell. 
Light to gentle variable winds with seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Central
America offshore waters associated with an active moonsoon
trough. 

For the forecast, an increase in winds and seas off the coast of
Ecuador can be expected today with a new round of SW swell. The S
to SW winds will become moderate to fresh while seas increase to
7 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue through Tue 
morning. SW swell to 8 ft will reach the waters off Guatemala and 
El Salvador by Mon night accompanied with an increase of winds 
to moderate to fresh speeds. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are
expected elsewhere through the middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb subtropical ridge centered near 26N134W continues to 
support fairly tranquil weather conditions N of 12N and W of 
110W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the ITCZ and 
E of 124W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon 
and ITCZ while moderate to locally fresh winds are S and in the 
vicinity of the monsoon trough.

No major changes are expected across the region through the
middle of next week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected
to develop from 05N to 10N between 94W and 110W with southwest
swell tonight. Winds will diminish by Mon night with the swell 
moving into the Central American offshores. Moderate to fresh N 
to NE winds in N swell are also expected near the Baja California
offshore waters Mon into Tue. 

$$
Ramos