000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050927
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of El Salvador near
13N88W to 13N100W to 11N112W to 07N129W. The ITCZ extends from
07N129W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 14N and E of 94W, from 09N to 12N between 104W to
124W, and from 04N to 09N and W of 133W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge is located west of the Baja California 
peninsula. This, combined with climatologically lower pressures 
over Mexico, is supporting fresh NW winds off of Punta Eugenia.
The latest ASCAT pass showed the NW fresh winds extend as far
west as Isla Guadalupe. Gentle to moderate NW breezes are noted 
elsewhere offshore the southern peninsula. Seas of 5-7 ft in NW 
swell are along the peninsula offshore waters. Light to gentle 
variable winds are along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 
ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 4-5 ft range 
dominate the remainder Mexican offshore waters in decaying SW 
swell.

For the forecast, low pressure along western Mexico will deepen 
tonight through Tue. This will tighten the pressure gradient 
across the region and support pulsing fresh to strong NW winds 
near Punta Eugenia. Moderate to fresh NW winds can be expected
across the remainder Baja peninsula. Seas during this period 
will range from 5-7 ft, with the highest seas N of Punta Eugenia.
Gentle to locally moderate SE winds are forecast along the Gulf 
of California through Wed with seas to 3 ft while light to gentle
variable winds and seas to 5 ft are expected elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds continue over the Guatemala, El
Salvador and Nicaragua offshore waters with seas to 5 ft in SW 
swell. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are between southern
Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 5 ft in
S to SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds with seas of 3-4 
ft are elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the El
Salvador and Nicaragua coast near the monsoon trough, in addition
to off the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. 

For the forecast, an increase in winds and seas off the coast of
Ecuador can be expected today with a new round of SW swell. The S
to SW winds will become moderate to fresh while seas increase to
7 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue through Tue 
morning. SW swell to 8 ft will reach the waters off Guatemala and 
El Salvador by Mon night accompanied with an increase of winds 
to moderate to fresh speeds. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are
expected elsewhere through the middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb subtropical ridge centered near 27N132W continues to 
support fairly tranquil weather conditions N of 12N and W of 
110W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the ITCZ and 
E of 124W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon 
and ITCZ while moderate to locally fresh winds are S and in the 
vicinity of the monsoon trough.

No major changes are expected across the region through the
middle of next week. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected
to develop from 05N to 10N between 94W and 110W with southwest
swell tonight. Winds will diminish by Mon night with the swell 
moving into the Central American offshores. Moderate to fresh N 
to NE winds in N swell are also expected near the Baja California
offshore waters Mon into Tue. 

$$
AReinhart