000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050337
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of El Salvador near 
13N88W to 10N104W to a 1010 mb low near 10N117W to another 1010 
mb low near 08N125W to 06N133W. The ITCZ extends from 06N133W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N 
to 11N between 95W and 109W, from 06N to 13N between 114W to 128W
and from 05N to 10N and W of 132W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge located west 
of the Baja California peninsula and climatologically lower 
pressures over Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW winds 
north of Punta Eugenia. Fresh NW winds are noted south of 
Punta Eugenia, with gentle NW breezes elsewhere offshore the 
southern peninsula. Seas of 5-7 ft in NW swell are along the 
peninsula offshore waters. Light to gentle variable winds are 
along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle 
variable winds with seas in the 4-5 ft range dominate the 
remainder Mexican offshore waters in decaying SW swell.

For the forecast, low pressure along western Mexico will deepen 
tonight through Tue. This will tighten the pressure gradient 
across the region and support fresh to strong NW winds near 
Punta Eugenia and moderate to fresh NW winds off the remainder 
Baja peninsula. Seas during this period will range from 5-7 ft, 
with the highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to locally 
moderate SE winds are forecast along the Gulf of California 
through Wed with seas to 3 ft while light to gentle variable 
winds and seas to 5 ft are expected elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds continue over the Guatemala, El
Salvador and Nicaragua offshore waters. Seas range 5-6 ft in SW 
swell. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands with seas of 5 ft in S to SW swell. Light 
to gentle variable winds with seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, an increase in winds and seas off the coast of
Ecuador will begin tonight into Sun morning with a new round of 
SW swell. Moderate S to SW winds are expected to reach fresh 
speeds while seas increase to 7 ft. These conditions are forecast
to continue through Tue morning. SW swell to 8 ft will reach the
waters off Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua by Mon night 
accompanied with an increase of winds to moderate speeds. Gentle 
to moderate S to SW winds are expected elsewhere through the 
middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1020 mb subtropical ridge centered near 27N129W continues to
support fairly tranquil weather conditions N of 10N and W of 110W.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the ITCZ and E of
130W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon and
ITCZ while moderate to locally fresh winds are S and in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough.

No major changes are expected across the region through the
middle of next week, except for moderate to fresh N to NE winds
in N swell developing along the Baja California offshore waters
early next week.

$$
AReinhart