000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N90W and continues along 
11N117W to 06N130W. The ITCZ begins near 06N130W and continues 
to 08N140W. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N to 15N E of
95W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 
96W and 109W, from 05N to 13N between 115W and 129W, and from 04N
to 12N W of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge located west 
of the Baja California peninsula and climatologically lower 
pressures over Mexico continue to support moderate to fresh NW 
winds north of Puerto Magdalena while gentle to locally moderate
NW breezes are found elsewhere offshore the southern peninsula. 
Seas of 5-6 ft in NW swell are along the peninsula offshore
waters. Gentle to moderate SE winds are along the Gulf of 
California with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with
seas in the 4-5 ft range dominate the remainder Mexican offshore
waters in decaying SW swell.

For the forecast, low pressure along western Mexico will deepen
tonight through Tue tightening the pressure gradient across the
region and supporting the development of fresh to locally strong
NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and moderate to fresh NW winds off
the remainder Baja peninsula. Seas during this period will range
from 5 to 7 ft, with the highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle
to locally moderate SE winds are forecast along the Gulf of
California through Wed with seas to 3 ft while light to gentle
variable winds and seas to 5 ft are expected elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to locally moderate SW to W winds continue over the 
Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua offshore waters with seas in
the 5-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 4-5 ft indicated
by recent altimeter data. Light to gentle variable winds with 
seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, an increase in winds and seas off the coast of
Ecuador will begin tonight accompanied with a new round of SW
swell. Moderate S to SW winds are expected to reach fresh speeds
while seas will increase up to 7 ft. These conditions are
forecast to continue through Monday. SW swell to 8 ft will reach
the waters off Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua by Mon 
night accompanied with an increase of winds to moderate speeds. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected elsewhere through
the middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1020 mb subtropical ridge centered near 27N129W continue to
support fairly tranquil weather conditions N of 10N and W of 110W.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the ITCZ and E of
130W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon and
ITCZ while moderate to locally fresh winds are S and in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough.

No major changes are expected across the region through the
middle of next week, except for moderate to fresh N to NE winds
in N swell developing along the Baja California offshore waters
early next week.

$$
Ramos