000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042121
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N90W and continues along 
11N117W to 06N130W. The ITCZ begins near 06N130W and continues 
to 08N140W. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N to 15N E of
95W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 
96W and 109W, from 05N to 13N between 115W and 129W, and from 04N
to 12N W of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge located west 
of the Baja California peninsula and climatologically lower 
pressures over Mexico continue to support moderate to fresh NW 
winds north of Puerto Magdalena while gentle to locally moderate
NW breezes are found elsewhere offshore the southern peninsula. 
Seas of 5-6 ft in NW swell are along the peninsula offshore
waters. Gentle to moderate SE winds are along the Gulf of 
California with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with
seas in the 4-5 ft range dominate the remainder Mexican offshore
waters in decaying SW swell.

For the forecast, low pressure along western Mexico will deepen
tonight through Tue tightening the pressure gradient across the
region and supporting the development of fresh to locally strong
NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and moderate to fresh NW winds off
the remainder Baja peninsula. Seas during this period will range
from 5 to 7 ft, with the highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle
to locally moderate SE winds are forecast along the Gulf of
California through Wed with seas to 3 ft while light to gentle
variable winds and seas to 5 ft are expected elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to locally moderate SW to W winds are over the Guatemala,
El Salvador and Nicaragua offshore waters with seas in the 5-7 ft
range as indicated by recent altimeter data. Gentle to moderate S
winds are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of
4-5 ft as altimeter data indicate. Light to gentle variable winds
with seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere. Otherwise, dense fog is being
reported along the coast from Guatemala to northern Panama.  

For the forecast, SW swell will diminish this afternoon. Looking
ahead, a new round of SW swell to 8 ft will return to the waters
off Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon night. Elsewhere gentle to 
moderate SW to S winds will persist through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1018 mb subtropical ridge positioned near 27N131W supports 
fairly tranquil weather conditions across the remainder of the 
tropical eastern Pacific, outside of the deep tropics. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds are north of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are also noted south of 
these troughs. Seas are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring 
near 10N93W.

For the forecast, east of 110W winds and seas will diminish from
05N to the monsoon trough along roughly 10N through Sat night. 
Looking ahead, SW winds will surge again in this area Sun 
through early next week, with seas building again to 8 ft in SW
swell. Farther west, the subtropical ridge will build by late
Sun, allowing trade winds to increase slightly farther south into
the tropics.

$$
Ramos