000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041546
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N89W and continues along 
11N114W to 06N128W. The ITCZ begins near 06N128W and continues
to 06N137W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N to 14N E of
109W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between
115W and 127W and from 04N to 13N W of 132W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge located west of
the Baja California peninsula and climatologically lower  
pressures over Mexico continue to support moderate to fresh NW 
winds north of Punta Eugenia while gentle to locally moderate NW
breezes are found elsewhere offshore the peninsula. NW swell is 
producing seas of 6-8 ft offshore Baja California Norte and 5-6 
ft elsewhere to Los Cabos as indicated by recent altimeter data.
Gentle to moderate SE winds are along the Gulf of California with
seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 4-6
ft range dominate the remainder Mexican offshore waters, except
for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where locally moderate N winds are
present. 

For the forecast, building high pressure west of the area will 
support moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California north
of Cabo San Lazaro that will persist through early next week. The
NW swell will produce 6-8 ft seas into early next week north of
Punta Eugenia. Light to locally moderate winds will persist in 
the remainder of the Mexican waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the winds
south of the W-SW monsoon flow have diminished to mainly 
moderate. Light to locally moderate SW winds prevail across the
Central American and Colombia offshore waters. Seas of 5-8 ft are
noted in the offshore waters of northern Central America, while
2-5 ft are found in the offshore waters from Costa Rica to
Colombia. Between the Galapagos islands and Ecuador, light to
locally moderate southerly flow and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, the SW swell to 8 ft off El Salvador and
Nicaragua will diminish this afternoon. Looking ahead, another 
round of SW swell to 8 ft will return to the waters off Guatemala
and El Salvador by Mon night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate SW to
S winds will persist through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1021 mb subtropical ridge positioned near 28N131W supports 
fairly tranquil weather conditions across the remainder of the 
tropical eastern Pacific, outside of the deep tropics. Latest 
satellite- derived wind data depict gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Gentle 
to moderate southerly winds are also noted south of these 
troughs. Seas are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 
10N93W.

For the forecast, east of 110W winds and seas will diminish from
05N to the monsoon trough along roughly 10N through Sat night. 
Looking ahead, SW winds will surge again in this area Sun 
through early next week, with seas building again to 8 ft in SW
swell. Farther west, the subtropical ridge will build by late
Sun, allowing trade winds to increase slightly farther south into
the tropics.

$$
Ramos