000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040847
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Central American Gyre that has been bringing moist onshore
flow to portions of Central America is expected to continue to 
weaken as Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves farther away from 
the region. The tropical moisture is enhancing the development of
showers and thunderstorms across Central America. This rainfall 
is occurring on already saturated ground, and localized flooding 
remains a possibility. However, gradual improvement is expected 
from late Sat through early Sun. Please consult products from 
your local weather office for specific information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One over the SE Gulf of Mexico is 
interrupting the monsoon trough over Central America. The western
segment of the monsoon trough starts over the Pacific near 
a 1011 mb low pressure near 12N115W and continues to 08N125W. 
The ITCZ stretches from 08N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N and between 104W and
111W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
present from 07N to 11N and W of 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient is tightening offshore Baja California
Norte as the subtropical ridge located west of the region builds
and pressures over Mexico remain climatologically low. Moderate
to fresh NW winds are present north of Punta Eugenia, while light
to locally moderate NW breezes are found south of Punta Eugenia
to the Los Cabos area. However, a recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured a small area of fresh W winds offshore the tip of 
the Baja California peninsula. NW swell is producing seas of 5-8
ft offshore Baja California Norte and 4-6 ft in the rest of the
waters described. Light to locally moderate winds and seas of 
1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. In the rest of the 
Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. Some minor 
visibility limitations are possible due to haze or smoke between 
Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas.

For the forecast, building high pressure west of the area will 
support moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California north
of Cabo San Lazaro that will persist through early next week. The
NW swell will produce 6-8 ft seas into early next week north of
Punta Eugenia. Light to locally moderate winds will persist in 
the remainder of the Mexican waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the winds
south of the W-SW monsoon flow have diminished to mainly 
moderate. Light to locally moderate SW winds prevail across the
Central American and Colombia offshore waters. Seas of 5-8 ft are
noted in the offshore waters of northern Central America, while
2-5 ft are found in the offshore waters from Costa Rica to
Colombia. Between the Galapagos islands and Ecuador, light to
locally moderate southerly flow and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, the SW swell to 8 ft off El Salvador and
Nicaragua will diminish this afternoon. Looking ahead, another 
round of SW swell to 8 ft will return to the waters off Guatemala
and El Salvador by Mon night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate SW to
S winds will persist through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1021 mb subtropical ridge positioned near 28N131W supports 
fairly tranquil weather conditions across the remainder of the 
tropical eastern Pacific, outside of the deep tropics. Latest 
satellite- derived wind data depict gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Gentle 
to moderate southerly winds are also noted south of these 
troughs. Seas are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 
10N93W.

For the forecast, east of 110W winds and seas will diminish from
05N to the monsoon trough along roughly 10N through Sat night. 
Looking ahead, SW winds will surge again in this area Sun 
through early next week, with seas building again to 8 ft in SW
swell. Farther west, the subtropical ridge will build by late
Sun, allowing trade winds to increase slightly farther south into
the tropics.

$$
Delgado