000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Central American Gyre that has been bringing moist onshore flow to portions of northern Central America is starting to weaken, as Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves farther away to the northeast. There is still a narrow band of moist westerly flow into the monsoon trough that is converging into El Salvador, and is bringing clusters of showers and thunderstorms farther inland to the higher terrain of west-central Honduras. This rainfall is adding to previous precipitation over the region that occurred during the past several days, and localized flooding is still possible. However, gradual improvement is expected from late Sat through early Sun. Please consult products from your local weather office for specific information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Potential Tropical Cyclone One off the Yucatan Peninsula in the south-central Gulf of Mexico is interrupting the monsoon trough over Central America. The western segment of the monsoon trough starts over the Pacific near 13N115W and it reaches to 1012 mb low pressure centered near 11N117W. then to 07N125W and 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 11N to 13N between 101W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California, between high pressure to the west and a trough over northwest Mexico. Earlier altimeter satellite data showed 4 to 6 ft seas off Baja California as well. Farther south, convergence of moderate NW and W winds are continuing to support clusters of showers and thunderstorms about 90 nm off the coast of Oaxaca. Seas were reaching up to 8 ft in that area due to persistent SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle winds and moderate seas are observed. Some minor visibility limitations are possible due to haze or smoke between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh W winds south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside through the weekend, becoming light to gentle. SW swell to 7 ft will subside off southern Mexico through tonight, but another round of SW swell to 8 ft can be expected by early next week. Farther north, building high pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro that will persist through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh westerly winds with seas to 8 ft are noted off the coasts of northern Central America. This is associated with the Central American Gyre, and the moist westerly flow will support periods of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains and highlands of Honduras and El Salvador. Farther south, light to gentle SW breezes are noted. Recent altimeter satellite data shows 5 to 7 ft seas off the coast from Panama to Nicaragua, and 4 to 6 ft seas farther south. For the forecast, convergent westerly flow will support scattered showers and thunderstorms along with SW swell to 8 ft into Sat mainly off Guatemala and El Salvador, then diminish. Looking ahead, another round of SW swell to 8 ft will return to the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate SW to S winds will persist through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh SW flow persists east of 120W from 05N to 12N, supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with 6 to 8 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle S breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Farther west, weak ridging persists north of 15N, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N138W. This is supporting moderate trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas farther south into the tropics. Upper divergence south of a mid/upper low is supporting a few showers from 05N to 10N between 135W and 140W. For the forecast, east of 110W winds and seas will diminish from 05N to the monsoon trough along roughly 10N through Sat night. Looking ahead, SW winds will surge again in this area Sun through early next week, with seas building again to 8 ft in SW swell. Farther west, the subtropical ridge will build by late Sun, allowing trade winds to increase slightly farther south into the tropics. $$ Christensen