492 AXPZ20 KNHC 031526 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre has developed across southern Mexico and northern Central America. This pattern will support locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize. The main time frame for this event is through Saturday, as fresh onshore flow brings moisture off the Pacific into the higher terrain of northern Central America and southern Mexico. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. Conditions will start to improve Sun. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is along 81W, south of 12N and across central Panama into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Potential Tropical Cyclone One off the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico is interrupting the monsoon trough over Central America. The monsoon trough starts over the Pacific near 13N115W and it reaches to 07N125W and on to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection reaches from 10N to 13N between 100W and 108W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California, between high pressure to the west and a trough over northwest Mexico. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed 4 to 6 ft seas off Baja California as well. Farther south, convergence of moderate NW and W winds were continuing to support clusters of showers and thunderstorms about 90 nm off the coast of Oaxaca. Seas were reaching up to 8 ft in that area due to persistent SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle winds and moderate seas are observed. Some minor visibility limitations are possible due to haze or smoke between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh W winds south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside through the weekend, becoming light to gentle. SW swell to 8 ft will subside off southern Mexico through tonight, but another round of SW swell to 8 ft can be expected by early next week. By Sat, the pressure gradient tightens off Baja California Norte, supporting moderate to fresh N winds that will increase to fresh by Sun, and persist through early next week while expanding southward to offshore Baja California Sur. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh westerly winds with seas to 8 ft are noted off the coasts of northern Central America. This is associated with the Central American Gyre, and the moist westerly flow will support periods of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains and highlands of Guatemala and El Salvador. Farther south, light to gentle SW breezes are noted. Recent altimeter satellite data shows 5 to 7 ft seas off the coast from Panama to Nicaragua, and 4 to 6 ft seas farther south. For the forecast, convergent westerly flow will support scattered showers and thunderstorms along with SW swell to 8 ft through Sat mainly off Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh W winds will to diminish to gentle to moderate this weekend. Winds in the Galapagos and offshore Ecuador region will increase late Sat, becoming moderate to fresh by Sun, before diminishing early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh SW flow persists east of 120W from 06N to 12N, supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with 6 to 8 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle S breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Farther west, weak ridging persists north of 15N, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N138W. This is supporting moderate trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas farther south into the tropics. Upper divergence south of a mid/upper low is supporting a few showers from 05N to 10N between 135W and 140W. For the forecast, no significant changes are expected. High pressure will remain in place through the weekend, gradually increasing NE winds to moderate across the majority of the area north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds will be found south of the monsoon trough beginning late this weekend into early next week. $$ Christensen