000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre has developed across southern Mexico and northern Central America. This pattern will support locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize. The main time frame for this event is through Saturday, as fresh onshore flow brings moisture off the Pacific into the higher terrain of northern Central America and southern Mexico. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 79W, south of 12N and across central Panama into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Mexico/Guatemala border near 15N92W to 14N110W and to 08N130W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 16N and E of 120W. Similar convection is noted from 06N to 11N and W of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to locally light NW winds are observed on satellite- derived wind data over the offshore waters west of Baja California. Seas in the area are 4-7 ft. Light to occasionally moderate winds are present in the Gulf of California, resulting in seas of 1-3 ft. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds are observed south of the monsoon trough that is currently in a more northward position due to the Central American Gyre. These winds affect mainly the offshore waters south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in this area are 5-8 ft. In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to moderate NW winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh W winds south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside through the weekend, becoming light to gentle. By Sat, the pressure gradient tightens off Baja California Norte, supporting moderate to fresh N winds that will increase to fresh to locally strong by Sun, and persist through early next week while expanding southward to offshore Baja California Sur. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The Central American Gyre has lifted the monsoon trough to near southern Mexico and Guatemala, resulting in gentle to locally fresh SW-W winds across the offshore waters of most of Central America. The strongest winds are affecting the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft in SW swell. Light to moderate SW winds are noted off Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia with seas of 3-6 ft. Farther south, gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador with seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast, convergent westerly flow will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sat. Moderate to fresh W winds will to diminish to gentle to moderate this weekend. Winds in the Galapagos and offshore Ecuador region will increase late Sat, becoming moderate to fresh by Sun, before diminishing early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure regime is found across the remainder of the eastern tropical Pacific, resulting in primarily gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds over most of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh W-SW winds are seen south of the monsoon trough to 06N and W of 108W. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted from 06N to 22N and W of 127W. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted in the rest of the area. For the forecast, no significant changes are expected. High pressure will remain in place through the weekend, gradually increasing NE winds to moderate across the majority of the area north of the monsoon trough. The Central American Gyre event will abate through the weekend, decreasing convection along the Central American coast. Moderate to fresh winds will be found south of the monsoon trough beginning late this weekend into early next week. $$ Delgado