000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030354
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Central American Gyre has developed across southern Mexico and
northern Central America. This pattern will support locally 
heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the 
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize. The main time frame for
this event is through Saturday, as fresh onshore flow brings 
moisture off the Pacific into the higher terrain of northern 
Central America and southern Mexico. This heavy rain will bring 
the threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is emerging in the eastern Pacific from the west
coast of Colombia, currently along 78W moving west at 15 kt.
Scattered weak convection is observed from 03N to 09N between
78W and 85W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N92W to 14N110W and to 
08N130W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
04N to 17N and E of 100W. Similar convection is noted from 08N to
12N and between 103W and 109W and also from 06N to 11N and
between 114W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 06N and 10N and W of 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient due to the subtropical ridge located just
west of the tropical eastern Pacific and lower pressures over
Mexico support gentle to locally fresh winds across the offshore
waters of the Baja California peninsula, with the strongest winds
occurring offshore Baja California Sur. NW swell is producing
seas of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds are found in the Gulf of
California with seas of 1-3 ft. Moderate to fresh westerly winds
are observed south of the monsoon trough that presently in a more
northward position due to the Central American Gyre. Seas in 
this area are 5-8 ft. In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to fresh NW-W winds and
seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh W winds south of the monsoon
trough along with an area of 6-8 ft swell south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will subside through the weekend. By Sat, high 
pressure approaches the eastern subtropical Pacific, generating 
moderate to fresh N winds along Baja California Norte. As the 
pressure gradient tightens, these winds will increase to fresh to
locally strong by Sun, and persist through early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The Central American Gyre has caused the monsoon trough to be
lifted to a more northward position, resulting in gentle to
locally fresh SW-W winds across the offshore waters of most of Central
America. The strongest winds are affecting the offshore waters 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft in SW 
swell. Light to moderate SW winds are noted off Costa Rica,
Panama and Colombia with seas of 3-6 ft. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds are present between the Galapagos Islands and
Ecuador with seas of 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, convergent westerly flow will support 
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. 
Moderate to fresh W winds will begin to diminish to gentle Fri 
night. Seas of 5 to 7 ft will mainly prevail through the end of 
the week, with up to 8 ft offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. 
Seas will begin to abate Fri night as the wind decreases.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge dominates the rest of the tropical eastern
Pacific, resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions outside
of the deep tropics. Moderate to locally fresh convergent winds 
are found along the ITCZ and monsoon trough, primarily over the
eastern portion of the basin. Light to moderate winds are
observed in the remainder of the eastern tropical Pacific. Seas 
are generally 5-7 ft with an area up to 8 ft from 07N to 12N, 
east of 120W.

For the forecast, no significant changes are expected. High 
pressure will remain in place through the weekend, gradually 
increasing NE winds to moderate across the majority of the area 
north of the monsoon trough. The Central American Gyre event will
abate through the weekend, decreasing convection along the 
Central American coast.

$$
Delgado