000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022150
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Central American Gyre has developed across southern Mexico and
northern Central America. This pattern will support locally 
heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the 
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize. The main time frame for
this event is through Saturday, as fresh onshore flow brings 
moisture off the Pacific into the higher terrain of northern 
Central America and southern Mexico. This heavy rain will bring 
the threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is emerging in the eastern Pacific from the west
coast of Colombia, currently along 78W moving west at 15 kt.
Scattered weak convection is observed from 03N to 09N between
78W and 85W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Central American Gyre has broken the monsoon trough in the
eastern Pacific. West of the Gyre, the monsoon trough extends
from 13N113W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 11N115W to 08N127W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 99W and 108W.
Scattered moderate convection is also observed near the low
pressure from 09N to 12N between 115W and 119W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure west of the area is causing mainly light and 
gentle winds across the offshore waters. A recent scatterometer 
pass found moderate NW winds near Cabo San Lucas, with gentle to 
moderate SE winds in the southern Gulf of California. North of 
Cabo Corrientes, seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Seas are 
also 5-7 ft south of Cabo Corrientes, but in SW swell. An area of
moderate to fresh W winds and 6-8 ft swell is observed south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are slight in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh W winds south of the monsoon
trough along with an area of 6-8 ft swell south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will subside through the weekend. By Sat, high
pressure approaches the eastern subtropical Pacific, generating
moderate to fresh N winds along Baja California Norte. As the 
pressure gradient tightens, these winds will increase to fresh by
Sun, and persist through early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

As the Central American Gyre lifts the monsoon trough north, a 
recent scatterometer pass found gentle to moderate SW-W winds 
across the offshore waters. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in SW swell, 
except to 8 ft well offshore Guatemala. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are occurring offshore Guatemala, El Salvador, 
Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, convergent westerly flow will support 
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. 
Moderate to fresh W winds will begin to diminish to gentle Fri 
night. Seas of 5 to 7 ft will mainly prevail through the end of 
the week, with up to 8 ft offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. 
Seas will begin to abate Fri night as the wind decreases.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure centered near 29N135W is causing mainly
light to gentle winds north of 15N. Convergent winds increase to
moderate along the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with mainly gentle to
moderate SE-SW winds south of these boundaries. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft with an area up to 8 ft from 07N to 12N, east
of 120W.

For the forecast, no significant changes are expected. High 
pressure will remain in place through the weekend, slowing 
increasing NE winds to moderate across the majority of the area 
north of the monsoon trough. The Central American Gyre event will
abate through the weekend, decreasing convection along the 
Central American coast and allowing the monsoon trough to become 
re-established.

$$
Flynn