000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is developing across southern Mexico and northern Central America, as broad low pressure forms over the northwest Caribbean Sea. This pattern will support locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize. The main time frame for the heaviest rainfall will over the next two days, as fresh onshore flow brings moisture off the Pacific into the higher terrain of northern Central America and southern Mexico. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is emerging in the eastern Pacific from the west coast of Colombia, currently along 77W moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 78W to 85W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W along the Pacific coastline of Central America to the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N96W, to a 1011mb low near 11N117W, to 07N127W. The ITCZ continues from 07N127W to 08N140W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 10N to 15N between 88W to 95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 09N13N between 97W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted near a low pressure center from 09N to 12N between 113W to 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate NW-N winds offshore Baja California, locally fresh near Cabo San Lucas per earlier scatterometer data, and moderate W-NW winds south of there, except locally fresh offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca per earlier scatterometer data as well. Scatterometer also showed light to gentle winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters in NW swell north of Cabo Corrientes, and SW swell south of there, locally 8 ft offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. Hazy conditions persist over much of the Mexican coast and offshore waters, mainly from coastal Michoacan to the southern Gulf of California. Stratus is noted in overnight satellite imagery just inland as well as offshore of Baja California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh W winds south of the monsoon trough along with an area of 6-8 ft swell south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside through the weekend. By Sat, a ridge encroaches on the area, generating moderate N winds along Baja California Norte. As the pressure gradient tightens, these winds will increase to fresh by Sun, and persist through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are impacting the offshore waters, except S-SW offshore Ecuador. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in SW swell, except to 9 ft offshore Guatemala and Ecuador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, convergent westerly flow will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through at least the end of the week. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds will prevail across the waters through today, diminishing to gentle to moderate tonight. Seas of 5 to 7 ft will mainly prevail through the end of the week, with 6 to 9 ft offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas will subside somewhat thereafter. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1011 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 11N117W. Nearby winds are moderate to fresh per recent scatterometer data. Recent altimeter data observed seas of 6 to 8 ft. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are still possible near the low. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are noted elsewhere south of the monsoon trough to around 07N and east of the low, with gentle to moderate southerly flow across the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mainly S-SW swell are noted across the waters south of 13N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Moderate NW to N winds earlier scatterometer data. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in NW-N swell across that same area. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, global models indicate the low pressure along the monsoon trough will weaken through 48 hours. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will support gentle to moderate winds across the open waters, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Northerly swell over the northern waters west of Baja California will decay today. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Flynn