000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020751 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jun 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is developing across southern Mexico and northern Central America, as broad low pressure forms over the northwest Caribbean Sea. This pattern will support locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize. The main time frame for the heaviest rainfall will over the next two days, as fresh onshore flow brings moisture off the Pacific into the higher terrain of northern Central America and southern Mexico. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is currently approaching the area from the east, currently along 76W over western Colombia, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 09N east of 80W including over portions of central and western Colombia. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N76W to along the Pacific coastline of Central America to the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15.5N95W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N117W to 08N123W. The ITCZ continues from 08N123W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 82W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 98W and 104W, from 10N to 13N between 112W and 118W, from 07N to 09N between 131W and 136W, and from 10N to 12N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate NW-N winds offshore Baja California, locally fresh near Cabo San Lucas per recent scatterometer data, and moderate W-NW winds south of there, except locally fresh offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca per recent scatterometer data as well. Scatterometer also showed light to gentle winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters in NW swell north of Cabo Corrientes, and SW swell south of there, locally 8 ft offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. Hazy conditions persist over much of the Mexican coast and offshore waters, mainly from coastal Michoacan to the southern Gulf of California. Stratus is noted in overnight satellite imagery just inland as well as offshore of Baja California. For the forecast, a brief pulse of NW swell will arrive Fri afternoon and night building seas up to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte. SW swell to 8 ft will persist off southern Mexico through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will support generally moderate winds and seas through late Fri over Mexican offshore waters. Looking ahead, building high pressure west of the area will support fresh NW winds off Baja California by Sat, accompanied by new NW swell. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are impacting the offshore waters, except S-SW offshore Ecuador. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in SW swell, except to 8 ft offshore Guatemala and Ecuador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across most of the waters north of Ecuador. For the forecast, convergent westerly flow will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through at least the end of the week. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds will prevail across the waters through today, diminishing to gentle to moderate tonight. Seas of 5 to 7 ft will mainly prevail through the end of the week, occasionally to 8 ft offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas will subside somewhat thereafter. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1011 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 10N117W. Nearby winds are moderate to fresh per recent scatterometer data, while nearby seas are still believed to be around 8 to 9 ft. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are still possible near the low. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are noted elsewhere south of the monsoon trough to around 08N and east of the low, with gentle to moderate southerly flow across the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mainly S-SW swell are noted across the waters south of 13N and east of 123W. Elsewhere, ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Moderate NW to N winds are noted north of 27N between Baja California and 130W per recent scatterometer data. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in NW-N swell across that same area. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, global models indicate the low pressure along the monsoon trough will weaken through 48 hours. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will support gentle to moderate winds across the open waters, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Northerly swell over the northern waters west of Baja California will decay today. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Lewitsky