035 AXPZ20 KNHC 020219 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is developing across southern Mexico and northern Central America, as broad low pressure forms over the northwest Caribbean Sea. This pattern will support locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize. The main time frame for the heaviest rainfall will over the next two days, as fresh onshore flow brings moisture off the Pacific into the higher terrain of northern Central America and southern Mexico. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 14N100W to low pressure 1011 mb near 10N117W to 08N122W. The ITCZ continues from 08N122W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 12N between 77W and 95W, and from 07N to 13N between 97W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 116W and 120W, from 06N to 08N between 131W and 135W, from 10N to 12N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate NW-N winds offshore Baja California, and moderate W-NW winds south of there, except locally fresh offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters in NW swell north of Cabo Corrientes, and SW swell south of there, locally 8 ft offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. Hazy conditions persist over much of the Mexican coast and offshore waters, mainly from coastal Michoacan to the southern Gulf of California. Some patchy stratus is noted in visible satellite imagery offshore portions of Baja California. For the forecast, NW swell off Baja California Norte will subside through tonight, with another pulse of NW swell Fri afternoon and night. SW swell to 8 ft will persist off southern Mexico into Thu. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will support generally moderate winds and seas through late Fri over Mexican offshore waters. Looking ahead, building high pressure west of the area will support fresh NW winds off Baja California by Sat, accompanied by new NW swell. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are impacting the offshore waters, except S-SW offshore Ecuador. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in SW swell, except to 8 ft offshore Guatemala and Ecuador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across most of the waters north of Ecuador. For the forecast, convergent westerly flow will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through at least the end of the week. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds will prevail across the waters through Thu, diminishing to gentle to moderate Thu night. Mainly seas of 5 to 7 ft will prevail through the end of the week, occasionally to 8 ft offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas will subside somewhat thereafter. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak 1011 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 10N117W. Nearby winds have likely diminished slightly to moderate to fresh, while nearby seas are still believed to be around 8 ft. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are still possible near the low. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are noted elsewhere south of the monsoon trough to around 08N and east of the low, with gentle to moderate southerly flow across the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mainly S-SW swell are noted across the waters south of 13N and east of 123W. Elsewhere, ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Moderate NW to N winds are noted north of 23N between Baja California and 130W. Seas are 7 ft in NW-N swell across that same area. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, global models indicate the low pressure along the monsoon trough will weaken through 48 hours. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will support gentle to moderate winds across the open waters, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Northerly swell over the northern waters west of Baja California will decay today. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Lewitsky