000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is developing across southern Mexico and northern Central America, as broad low pressure forms over the northwest Caribbean Sea. This pattern will support locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize. The main time frame for the heaviest rainfall will over the next two days, as fresh onshore flow brings moisture off the Pacific into the higher terrain of northern Central America and southern Mexico. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N84W to 14N100W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N115W to 06N125W. The ITCZ continues from 06N125W to 07N131W, where it is interrupted by a trough, then continues from 07N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 06N between 79W and 81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the low pressure area from 10N to 12N between 101W and 104W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate NW-N winds offshore Baja California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are in the Tehuantepec area, with large SW swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed swell. Hazy conditions persist over much of the Mexican coast and offshore waters, mainly from coastal Michoacan to the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, NW swell off Baja California Norte will subside through tonight. SW swell to 8 ft will persist off southern Mexico into Thu. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will support generally moderate winds and seas through late Fri over Mexican offshore waters. Looking ahead, building high pressure west of the area will support fresh NW winds off Baja California by Sat, accompanied by new NW swell. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds and SW swell to 8 ft are impacting the waters well off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere mainly gentle to moderate SW winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell. For the forecast, fresh westerly winds will continue to impact northern Central American waters through late week, accompanied by seas to 8 ft in SW swell. The convergent westerly flow will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as well through this period. Gentle to moderate westerly winds and moderate SW swell will persist elsewhere across the region into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 11N115W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed an area of 20 to 25 kt SW winds within 90 nm of the center in the southeast quadrant. An earlier altimeter satellite pass also indicated seas of 8 to 9 ft in the area of fresh to strong SW winds. Earlier shower and thunderstorm activity near the low has diminished. Farther east, scatterometer data also indicated a band of fresh SW to W winds from 08N to 12N between 95W and 105W, into the monsoon trough. This was possibly related to the developing Central American gyre, and was supporting scattered moderate showers and a few thunderstorms in the same area. A concurrent altimeter pass showed seas of 6 to 7 ft in this area, but seas to 8 ft in SW swell are likely just east of where the satellite pass sampled. Elsewhere, ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Moderate NW to N winds are noted north of 25N between Baja California and 125W. Seas are 7 ft in NW-N swell north of 25N between Baja California Norte and 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, global models indicate the low pressure along the monsoon trough will weaken through 48 hours. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will support gentle to moderate winds across the open waters, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Northerly swell over the northern waters west of Baja California will decay today. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Christensen