913 AXPZ20 KNHC 011540 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is expected to develop across southern Mexico and northern Central America within the next couple of days. This setup will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America and southern Mexico, entering the Pacific near 16N99W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N115W to 06N125W. The ITCZ continues from 06N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N west of 83W, and from 09N to 12N between 92W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 98W and 102W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California, locally fresh to strong near Cabo San Lucas early this morning. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are in the Tehuantepec area. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, as well as in the Gulf of California except for a few locally spots downwind of gap areas where winds are moderate. NW swell is generating seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are in the 5-7 ft range, except to around 8 ft offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California and the Gulf of California. Typical 'June Gloom' stratus is evident on satellite imagery from offshore San Diego, California to just inland and offshore Baja California early this morning. For the forecast, NW swell off Baja California Norte will subside through tonight. SW swell to 8 ft will persist off southern Mexico into Thu. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will support generally moderate winds and seas through late Fri over Mexican offshore waters. Looking ahead, building high pressure west of the area will support fresh NW winds off Baja California by Sat, accompanied by new NW swell. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds and SW swell to 8 ft are impacting the waters well off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere mainly gentle to moderate SW winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell. For the forecast, fresh westerly winds will continue to impact northern Central American waters through late week, accompanied by seas to 8 ft in SW swell. The convergent westerly flow will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as well through this period. Gentle to moderate westerly winds and moderate SW swell will persist elsewhere across the region into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak low pressure along the monsoon trough near 115W is looking a little better organized on satellite imagery this morning. SW winds to 25 kt are suspected on the southeast quadrant of the low, part of a larger surge of fresh SW winds converging into the low pressure area. This is supporting clusters of convection near the low as well, which although are persistent, are not especially well developed so far. An altimeter pass from a few hours ago confirmed seas to 8 ft near the center of the low. Elsewhere ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted north of 28N between Baja California and 125W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW-N swell north of 24N between Baja California Norte and 125W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough east of 115W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, global models indicate the low pressure along the monsoon trough will weaken through 48 hours. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will support gentle to moderate winds across the open waters, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Northerly swell over the northern waters west of Baja California will decay today. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Christensen