000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010731 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is expected to develop across southern Mexico and northern Central America within the next couple of days. This setup will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America and southern Mexico, entering the discussion waters near 16N98W to 10N116W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 80W and 97W, and from 08N to 13N between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 112W and 119W, from 06N to 08N between 120W and 127W, and from 09N to 11N between 132W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California, locally fresh to strong near Cabo San Lucas early this morning. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are in the Tehuantepec area. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, as well as in the Gulf of California except for a few locally spots downwind of gap areas where winds are moderate. NW swell is generating seas of 7-10 ft offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are in the 5-7 ft range, except to around 8 ft offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California and the Gulf of California. Typical 'June Gloom' stratus is evident on satellite imagery from offshore San Diego, California to just inland and offshore Baja California early this morning. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Baja California will prevail through sunrise, then moderate through the end of the week, and moderate to fresh again Sat through Sun. SW-W fresh winds will surge across the waters offshore Oaxaca today through Thu, along with seas to around 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. NW swell offshore Baja California will decay today. A new set of NW swell will arrive offshore Baja California by the end of the week through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate, locally fresh, SW winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell, except up to 7 ft in the far outer waters of Guatemala due to seas that were generated by Agatha as well as 7 ft in any locally fresh winds. For the forecast, gentle to moderate onshore winds will be locally fresh through tonight. A surge of fresh SW-W winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west this afternoon through Thu as another Central America Gyre develops, along with building seas to around 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted north of 28N between Baja California and 125W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW-N swell north of 24N between Baja California Norte and 126W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough east of 115W, where seas are 7-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5-7 ft seas, reaching 8 ft in S-SW swell near 03.4S120W. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will support gentle to moderate winds across the open waters, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Northerly swell over the northern waters west of Baja California will decay today. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Lewitsky