000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is expected to develop across southern Mexico and northern Central America within the next couple of days. This setup will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America and southern Mexico, entering the discussion waters near 17N98W to 10N118W to 09N128W. The ITCZ continues from 09N128W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 16N between 82W and 96W, from 08N to 15N between 100W and 110W, from 08N to 12N between 111W and 119W, and from 09N to 11N between 130W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are in the Tehuantepec area. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, as well as. in the Gulf of California. NW swell is generating seas of 7-10 ft offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are in the 5-7 ft range, except 6-9 ft offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California and the Gulf of California. Patchy stratus is evident on visible satellite imagery just offshore from near San Diego, California to Punta Eugenia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Baja California will prevail through tonight, then moderate through the end of the week, and moderate to fresh again Sat through Sun. SW-W fresh winds will surge across the waters offshore Oaxaca early Wed through Thu, along with seas to around 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. NW swell offshore Baja California will linger into Wed. A new set of NW swell will arrive offshore Baja California by the end of the week through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds prevail, locally fresh offshore Ecuador. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell, except up to 7 ft in the far outer waters of Guatemala due to seas that were generated by Agatha, and 7 ft offshore Ecuador north of the Equator. For the forecast, gentle to moderate onshore winds will increase to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Wed and Wed night. A surge of fresh SW-W winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu as another Central America Gyre develops, along with building seas. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Fresh N winds are noted north of 28N between 119W and 125W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW-N swell north of 23N between Baja California and 129W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough east of 120W, where seas are 7-9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5-7 ft seas, reaching 8 ft in new S-SW swell near 03.4S120W, and also locally 8 ft near 12N140W. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will support gentle to moderate winds across the open waters, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Northerly swell will continue to push south of 30N through tonight with seas of 7-10 ft, decaying Wed and Wed night, with another 8 ft NW swell pulse in the same area Thu. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Lewitsky