000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312038 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Central American Gyre is expected to develop across southern Mexico and northern Central America within the next couple of days. This setup will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America and southern Mexico, entering the discussion waters near 17N99W to 08N124W. The ITCZ continues from 08N124W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 78W and 90W, from 10N to 16N between 90W and 106W, from 08N to 11N between 106W and 120W, and from 05N to 10N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California Norte, and gentle to moderate winds off Baja California Sur, including south of Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh winds are in the Tehuantepec area. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California. NW swell is generating seas of 7-10 ft offshore Baja California Norte. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are in the 5-7 ft range, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California and the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Baja California will prevail through tonight, then moderate through the end of the week, and moderate to fresh again Sat. SW-W fresh to locally strong winds will surge across the waters offshore Oaxaca early Wed through Thu, along with seas to around 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. NW swell offshore Baja California will linger into Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly light to gentle onshore winds prevail offshore Colombia and westward to offshore Guatemala. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are offshore Ecuador. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell, except up to 7 ft in the far outer waters of Guatemala due to seas that were generated by Agatha. For the forecast, gentle to moderate onshore winds will increase to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu as another Central America Gyre develops, along with building seas. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Fresh N winds are noted north of 28N between 119W and 125W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW-N swell north of 24N between Baja California and 127W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, locally strong, are south of the monsoon trough to 06N and east of 120W, where seas are 7-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5-7 ft seas, reaching 8 ft in new S-SW swell near 03.4S120W. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will support moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through tonight. Winds will weaken across the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ thereafter as the pressure gradient loosens. Northerly swell will continue to push south of 30N through tonight with seas of 7-10 ft, decaying Wed and Wed night. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ AL