000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311459 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue May 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Agatha continues to weaken, with the low level center dissipating. The remnants of Agatha is centered near 17.3N 94.9W at 31/1500 UTC moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Winds and seas continue to decrease over water, with winds to 25 kt, and seas to 8 ft in the Tehuantepec region. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Looking ahead, a Central American Gyre is expected to develop across southern Mexico and northern Central America within the next couple of days. This setup will maintain the chance for locally heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days. This heavy rain will bring the threat of potentially life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N91W. It resumes from 16N99W to 08N126W. The ITCZ continues from 08N126W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N east of 87W, from 10N to 16N between 90W and 106W, and from 08N to 11N between 106W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on newly downgraded Tropical Storm Agatha. A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California. Agatha has continued to weaken, with its remnants near 17.3N 94.9W. Fresh to strong winds remain over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California. NW swell is generating seas of 7-10 ft offshore Baja California Norte. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are in the 5-7 ft range, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California and the Gulf of California. Overnight satellite imagery shows areas of stratus offshore Baja California. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the Tehuantepec area will diminish this morning. Moderate to fresh winds offshore Baja California will prevail through tonight, then moderate through the end of the week, and moderate to fresh again Sat. SW-W fresh to locally strong winds will surge across the waters offshore Oaxaca early Wed through Thu, along with seas to around 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. NW swell offshore Baja California will linger into Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly light to gentle onshore winds prevail offshore Colombia and westward to offshore Guatemala, except gentle offshore winds offshore Nicaragua. Moderate southerly winds are offshore Ecuador. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell, except up to 7 ft in the far outer waters of Guatemala due to seas that were generated by Agatha. For the forecast, gentle to moderate onshore winds will increase to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough tonight through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu as another Central America Gyre develops, along with building seas. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds are noted north of 29N between 119W and 124W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW-N swell surrounding these winds north of 24N between Baja California and 130W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, locally strong, are south of the monsoon trough to 07N and east of 120W, where seas are 7-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5-7 ft seas, reaching 8 ft in new S-SW swell near 03.4S120W. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through tonight. Winds will weaken across the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ thereafter as the pressure gradient loosens. Northerly swell will continue to push south of 30N through tonight with seas of 7-11 ft, decaying Wed and Wed night. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ AL