000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310838 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered near 16.7N 95.5W at 31/0900 UTC moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft. Numerous moderate convection is seen in satellite imagery within 300 nm in the northeast quadrant, and within 210 nm in the south semicircle. Agatha is moving toward the northeast and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will continue to move farther inland over southern Mexico this morning. Further weakening is expected, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by this afternoon. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W to 11.5N90.5W, then resumes west-southwest of Agatha near 14N102W to 10N121W. The ITCZ continues from 10N121W to 10N133W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 77W and 83W, from 09N to 13N between 86W and 88W, from 08N to 12N between 90W and 95W, from 10N to 14N between 100W and 113W, from 08N to 11N between 113W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on newly downgraded Tropical Storm Agatha. A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas, with similar winds southeastward to just west of Agatha. Gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California, except fresh SW-W winds in the southern Gulf from 24N to 25.5N due to a brief gap wind surge. NW swell is building seas offshore Baja California Norte with 7-10 ft there. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere outside of the influence of Agatha, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California and the Gulf of California. Overnight satellite imagery shows areas of stratus offshore Baja California. For the forecast, aside from the effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will be moderate to fresh through tonight, then moderate through the end of the week, and moderate to fresh again Sat. Winds will be locally strong near Cabo San Lucas through early this morning. SW-W fresh to strong winds will surge across the waters offshore Oaxaca in the wake of Agatha early Wed through Thu, along with seas to around 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. NW swell offshore Baja California will linger into Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly light to gentle onshore winds prevail offshore Colombia and westward to offshore Guatemala, except gentle offshore winds offshore Nicaragua and moderate well offshore western Guatemala on the outer fringe of Agatha. Moderate southerly winds are offshore Ecuador. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell, except up to 8 ft in the far outer waters of Guatemala due to seas associated to Agatha. For the forecast, gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail through today, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough tonight through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu as another Central America Gyre develops, along with building seas. Seas associated with Agatha, west of the area, will subside over the offshore waters of Guatemala today. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Fresh to locally strong NW-N winds are noted north of 29N between 119W and 124W due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 7-11 ft in NW-N swell surrounding these winds north of 24N between Baja California and 130W or so. Moderate to fresh SW winds, locally strong, are south of the monsoon trough to 08N and east of 120W, where seas are 7-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 5-7 ft seas, approaching 8 ft in new S-SW swell near 03.4S120W. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through tonight. Winds will weaken across the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ thereafter as the pressure gradient loosens. Northerly swell will continue to push south of 30N through tonight with seas of 7-11 ft, decaying Wed and Wed night. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Lewitsky