000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered near 16.2N 96.2W at 31/0300 UTC moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently 20 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 120 nm in the east semicircle and 75 nm in the west semicircle, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 92W and 99W. Agatha is moving toward the northeast and this general motion is expected to continue through Tue. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will continue to move inland over Oaxaca through early Tue. Further weakening is expected, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over Mexico by Tue afternoon. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through Tue. This will pose a threat of life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W to 12N91W, then resumes west of Agatha near 14.5N102W to 10N121W. The ITCZ continues from 10N121W to 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 87W, from 10N to 14N between 101W and 108W, and from 08N to 13N between 109W and 123W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 134W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on newly downgraded Tropical Storm Agatha. A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. Broad surface troughing is located along and near the Gulf of California, as well as across mainland Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas, with similar winds southeastward to just west of Agatha. Gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California. NW swell is building seas offshore Baja California Norte with 7-10 ft there. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere outside of the influence of Agatha, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California and the Gulf of California. Afternoon visible satellite imagery shows patchy stratus offshore Baja California. For the forecast, aside from the effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will be moderate to fresh through Tue night, then moderate through the end of the week, and moderate to fresh again Sat. Winds will be locally strong near Cabo San Lucas tonight. SW-W fresh to strong winds will surge across the waters offshore Oaxaca in the wake of Agatha early Wed through Thu, along with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. NW swell offshore Baja California will linger into Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly light to gentle onshore winds prevail offshore Colombia and westward to offshore Guatemala, except moderate to locally fresh west of 96W on the outer fringe of Agatha. Moderate southerly winds are offshore Ecuador. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell, except up to 8 ft in the far outer waters of Guatemala due to seas associated to Agatha. For the forecast, gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail through Tue, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Tue night through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu as another Central America Gyre develops, along with building seas. Seas associated with Agatha, west of the area, will subside over the offshore waters of Guatemala by early Tue. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Mainly moderate winds prevail across the discussion waters, except moderate to fresh northerly winds north of 28N east of 125W. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range north of 28N and east of 128W, and 5-7 ft seas elsewhere, locally to 8 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the early part of the week. Winds will weaken across the open waters thereafter as the pressure gradient loosens. New northerly swell will push south of 30N through the early part of the week, building seas to 7-11 ft north of 23N between Baja California and 130W. Seas will subside slightly by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Lewitsky