000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300851 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon May 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Agatha is centered near 14.8N 97.7W at 30/0900 UTC moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are currently 27 ft. Numerous strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 60 nm of the center of Agatha, with scattered moderate to strong convection elsewhere from 11N to 16N between 94W and 102W. Agatha is moving toward the northeast and this general motion is expected to continue through Tue. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon or this evening. Little change in strength is expected today before Agatha reaches the coast of Oaxaca. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late Tue. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through Tue. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends across Panama from 09N80W to 10N86W to 14N93W, then resumes west of Agatha near 14N102W to 14N111W to 10N120W to 09N131W. The ITCZ extends from 09N131W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 77W and 80W, from 07N to 13N between 83W and 90W, from 12N to 15N between 102W and 104W, from 08.5N to 12N between 102W and 123W, and from 08N to 11N between 126W and 129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 131W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha. A weak ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of SW Arizona and SE California to across Baja California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California. Moderate to fresh SW-W gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of California from 27N to 29N, while moderate SE winds are in the northern and southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle southerly winds are from Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas, with gentle to moderate W-NW elsewhere south of 20N outside of the influence of Agatha. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in mixed southerly and NW swell outside of the influence of Agatha, except 3-5 ft offshore Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less, except 2 to 4 ft from 27N to 29N. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California and the Gulf of California. Satellite imagery shows stratus back along and offshore Baja California Norte. For the forecast, aside from the effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will be moderate to fresh through the early part of the week, occasionally fresh to strong near Cabo San Lucas tonight and again Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside of Agatha. NW swell will build offshore Baja California through the early part of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha west of the area. Mainly light to gentle onshore winds prevail offshore Colombia and westward to offshore Guatemala, except moderate to fresh west of 96W on the outer fringe of Agatha, and locally moderate NE near the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are offshore Ecuador. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia and up to 8 ft in the far outer waters of Guatemala due to the outer fringe of Agatha. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the Pacific coasts from Colombia westward to Guatemala, extending offshore. For the forecast, gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail through Tue, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Tue night through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu as another Central America Gyre develops. Large seas associated with Hurricane Agatha, located west of the area, will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha offshore of southern Mexico. Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 110W. Mainly moderate winds prevail across the open waters, except moderate to fresh and northerly north of 28N east of 128W. Seas are 5-6 ft from 12N to 26N between 113W and 131W, with mainly 6-7 ft seas elsewhere, locally to 8 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the early part of the week. Winds will weaken across the open waters thereafter as the pressure gradient loosens. New northerly swell will push south of 30N through the early part of the week, building seas to 7-11 ft north of 23N between Baja California and 130W. Seas will subside slightly by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Lewitsky