000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300239 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Agatha is centered near 14.5N 98.2W at 30/0300 UTC moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are currently 26 ft. Numerous strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 60 nm of the center of Agatha, with scattered moderate to strong convection elsewhere from 09N to 16N between 92W and 106W. Agatha is moving toward the northeast and this general motion is expected overnight and Mon. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will make landfall in southern Mexico Mon afternoon or evening. Agatha is forecast to strengthen into a category 3 major hurricane on Mon and maintain that intensity through landfall. Rapid weakening is expected over southeastern Mexico on Tue. Heavy rains associated with Agatha over portions of southern Mexico will continue through Tue. This rainfall will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Papagayo Region at 11N86W to 15N95W, then resumes west of Agatha near 14N105W to 10N120W to 08N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 81W and 87W, from 09N between 15N between 108W and 118W, from 09N to 11N between 118W and 123W, and from 05N to 10N between 128W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 79W, and from 04N to 10N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha. A weak ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of SW Arizona and SE California to across Baja California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong NW-N winds across the coastal waters west of Baja California, with moderate to fresh winds beyond that. Moderate to fresh SW-W gap winds are occurring the central Gulf of California from 27N to 28N, while moderate SE winds are in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere south of 20N outside of the influence of Agatha. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in mixed southerly and NW swell outside of the influence of Agatha, except 3-5 ft offshore Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less, except 2 to 4 ft from 27N to 28N. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California and the Gulf of California. Satellite imagery shows some low clouds and patchy fog from near Imperial Beach, California to just northwest of Punta Eugenia. For the forecast, aside from the effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will be moderate to fresh through the early part of the week, occasionally fresh to strong near Punta Eugenia northward tonight, and near Cabo San Lucas Mon night and Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside of Agatha. NW swell will build offshore Baja California through the early part of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha west of the area. Mainly gentle onshore winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters of Colombia westward to Guatemala. Farther offshore, gentle to moderate S-SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador, and 3-5 ft range elsewhere offshore, except 4-7 ft offshore Guatemala due to SW swell associated with Hurricane Agatha, which is west of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the Pacific coasts from Colombia westward to Guatemala, extending offshore. For the forecast, gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail through Mon night, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Tue night through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu as another Central America Gyre develops. Large seas associated with Hurricane Agatha, located west of the area, will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha offshore of southern Mexico. Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail north of the monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-6 ft from 12N to 28N between 114W and 132W, with mainly 6-7 ft seas elsewhere, locally to 8 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the early part of the week. Winds will weaken across the open waters thereafter as the pressure gradient loosens. New northerly swell will push south of 30N tonight through the early part of the week, building seas to 7-11 ft north of 23N between Baja California and 130W. Seas will subside slightly by the end of the week with the weakening winds. $$ Lewitsky