000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Agatha is centered near 14.1N 98.7W at 2100 UTC drifting NE at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are currently 25 ft across the NE quadrant. Strong convection continues near the center of Agatha, and recent microwave imagery shows improved organization near the center, and an eye appears to be developing. This indicates that rapid intensification of Agatha continues. Numerous strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 120 nm of center except 75 nm across the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm SE and 300 nm SW of the center. Agatha has been moving very slowly and erratically today but is expected to turn toward the northeast tonight and increase forward motion. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will reach the southern coast of Mexico Mon afternoon or evening. Agatha is expected to continue to intensify and is expected to reach major hurricane intensity tonight through Mon afternoon. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will spread across coastal portions of southern Mexico later this evening and continue through Tue. This will pose a threat of potentially life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. Please refer to your local meteorological agency for more details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N74W to 10N84W to 13N95W, then resumes west of Agatha from 13.5N103W to 14N106W to 08N131W to 09.5N138W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N N to the coasts between 78W and 89W, from 10N to 14N between 89W and 94W, from 10N to 14N between 103W and 106W, and from 09N to 13.5N between 108W and 120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 09.5N between 126W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha. A weak ridge of high pressure extends from northwest of the area southeastward across the offshore waters. A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of SW Arizona and SE California to across Baja California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to locally fresh NNW winds offshore Baja California. Moderate SW-W gap winds are occurring the central Gulf of California, while moderate SW-W winds are in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere south of 20N outside of the influence of Agatha. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in mixed southerly and NW swell outside of the influence of Agatha, except 3-5 ft offshore Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3-4 ft in the central portion, 2-4 ft in the northern portion, and 3 ft in the southern portion. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from the effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will remain moderate to fresh through the early part of the week, occasionally fresh to strong near Punta Eugenia northward tonight and near Cabo San Lucas Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside of Agatha. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late this afternoon through the early part of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha west of the area. Mainly gentle onshore winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters of Colombia westward to Guatemala. Farther offshore, gentle to moderate S-SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador, and 3-5 ft range elsewhere offshore, except 4-7 ft offshore Guatemala due to SW swell associated with Agatha, which is west of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the Pacific coasts from Colombia westward to southern Nicaragua, and extend south and offshore to 04.5N. Similar widely scattered convection is seen offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. For the forecast, gentle to moderate onshore winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu as another Central America Gyre develops. Large seas associated with Hurricane Agatha, located west of the area, will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha offshore of southern Mexico. The weak remnants of a frontal trough extends through 30N120W to 28.5N123W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are behind the trough, while new NW swell lags just behind the trough. 1027 mb high pressure is located to the NW near 37N135W, and extends a ridge south and southeastward into the area west of 100W. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure near the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 120W, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Mainly moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough away from Agatha. South of 10N between 98W and 130W, southerly swell and the locally fresh southerly winds are supporting seas in the 6-8 ft range. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range north of 20N between 119W and 129W, as well as from 14N to 20N between 106W and 118W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in mixed northerly and southerly swell, locally to 8 ft in the west-central waters where the locally fresh winds continue. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the early part of the week. New northerly swell will push south of 30N late this afternoon through the early part of the week, building seas to 8-11 ft north of 23N between Baja California and 130W. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue to propagate through the waters south of 10N through today before decaying, with seas up to around 8 ft. New SW swell will cross the equator and move into the waters of the deep tropics Tue through Wed. $$ Stripling