000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291616 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Agatha is centered near 14.1N 99.0W at 1500 UTC moving NNW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently 23 ft across the NE quadrant. Strong convection continues to expand near the center of Agatha, and recent satellite and microwave imagery shows improved organization near the center, and an eye appears to be developing. This suggests that a period of rapid intensification has begun. Numerous strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 180 nm E and 240 nm W of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within 300 nm of the center. Agatha is moving slowly toward the north-northwest, and a turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with a slow motion toward the northeast continuing through Mon night. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico late today and make landfall there on Mon afternoon. Agatha is expected to continue to intensify and may reach major hurricane strength before landfall Mon afternoon. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico later today and continue through Tue. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. Please refer to your local meteorological agency for more details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N74W to 09.5N85W to 12.5N96W, then resumes west of Agatha from 13.5N103W to 08N131W to 09N138W to 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 12.5N between 78W and 94W, and from 09N to 12.5N between 103W and 108W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 90 nm S of trough between 103W and 125W, and within 90 nm N and 240 nm S of trough between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha. A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the offshore waters well to the northwest of Agatha. A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of SW Arizona and SE California to across the northern Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to locally fresh NNW winds offshore Baja California. A brief surge of SW-W gap winds in the central Gulf of California continues this morning, with moderate to fresh SW-W winds in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere outside of the influence of Agatha. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in mixed southerly and NW swell outside of the influence of Agatha, except 3-5 ft offshore Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3-6 ft in the central portion near the wind surge, 2-4 ft in the northern portion, and 3 ft or less in the southern portion. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California Sur and Gulf of California. Satellite imagery indicates some stratus lingering along the coasts of the Baja California Peninsula near Punta Eugenia northward, including Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. For the forecast, aside from the evolution and effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will remain moderate to fresh through the early part of the week, occasionally fresh to strong near Punta Eugenia northward tonight and near Cabo San Lucas Mon night. Meanwhile, the brief surge of fresh to strong SW-W winds in the central Gulf of California will diminish by afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside of Agatha. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late today through the early part of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha west of the area. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters of Colombia westward. Elsewhere, Gentle to moderate S-SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador, and 3-5 ft range elsewhere offshore, except 4-7 ft offshore Guatemala due to SW swell associated with Agatha, which is west of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the Pacific coasts from Colombia westward to El Salvador, and extend offshore to 05N. Similar convection is seen extending from 90 to 240 nm offshore of Guatemala. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu. Large seas associated with Hurricane Agatha, located west of the area, will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala today through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Agatha offshore of southern Mexico. A weak cold front has drifted south of 30N and extends from 30N124W to 27N138W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are behind the front, while new NW swell lags behind it and north of 30N. South of the front, high pressure ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 100W. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure near the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 120W, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough away from Agatha. South of 10N between 98W and 130W, southerly swell and the locally fresh southerly winds are supporting seas in the 6-8 ft range. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range north of 20N between 119W and 129W, as well as from 12N to 20N between 106W and 118W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in mixed northerly and southerly swell, locally to 8 ft in the west-central waters where the locally fresh winds continue. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the early part of the week. The weak cold front across the northern waters will wash out just south of 30N. New northerly swell behind the front will push south of 30N late today through the early part of the week, building seas to 8-11 ft north of 23N between Baja California and 128W. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue to propagate through the waters south of 10N through today before decaying, with seas up to around 8 ft. $$ Stripling