000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290850 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered near 14.1N 98.8W at 29/0900 UTC moving NNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently 20 ft. A well defined cluster of numerous strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within 120 nm of the center. Agatha is moving slowly toward the north-northwest, and a turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with a slow motion toward the northeast continuing through Mon night. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico today and make landfall there on Mon. Agatha is expected to become a hurricane later today, and further intensification is anticipated up until landfall on Mon. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico later today and continue through Tue. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. Please refer to your local meteorological agency for more details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09.5N85W to 13N97W, then resumes west of Agatha from 13.5N102W to 10N120W to 07N130W to 09.5N140W. No ITCZ axis is east of 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm southwest of a line from 13N97W to 06N87W, from 08.5N to 14N between 102W and 124W, from 14N to 18N between 108W and 116W, from 05N to 10N between 124W and 129W, and from 05N to 11N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha. A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the offshore waters well to the northwest of Agatha. A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of SW Arizona and SE California to across the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to locally fresh NNW winds offshore Baja California. A brief surge of SW-W gap winds in the central Gulf of California is occurring early this morning, with moderate to fresh SW-W winds in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere outside of the influence of Agatha. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mixed southerly and NW swell outside of the influence of Agatha, except 3-5 ft offshore Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3-5 ft in the central portion near the wind surge, 2-4 ft in the northern portion, and 3 ft or less in the southern portion. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California Sur and Gulf of California. Satellite imagery indicates some stratus from the Baja California Peninsula near Punta Eugenia and northward, including Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. For the forecast, aside from the evolution and effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will remain moderate to fresh through the early part of the week, occasionally fresh to strong near Punta Eugenia northward tonight and near Cabo San Lucas Mon night. Meanwhile, the brief surge of fresh to strong SW-W winds in the central Gulf of California will diminish by sunrise. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside of Agatha. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late today through the early part of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha west of the area. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters of Colombia westward. Elsewhere, Gentle to moderate S-SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador, and 3-5 ft range elsewhere offshore, except 4-7 ft offshore Guatemala due to outer SW swell associated with Agatha which is west of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the Pacific coast of Colombia and adjacent areas inland, as well as along the coast of NW Costa Rica and Nicaragua, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible elsewhere offshore. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu. Large seas associated with Tropical Storm Agatha west of the area, forecast to become a hurricane later today, will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala today through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha offshore of southern Mexico. A weak cold front has managed to sneak south of 30N and extends from 30N129W to 29N135W to 30N139W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are behind the front, while a set of NW swell lags north of 30N. South of the front, high pressure ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 100W. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure near the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 114W, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough away from Agatha. South of 10N between 97W and 125W, southerly swell and the locally fresh southerly winds are supporting seas in the 6-8 ft range. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range north of 20N between 119W and 129W, as well as from 12N to 20N between 106W and 118W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in mixed northerly and southerly swell, locally to 8 ft in the west-central waters where the locally fresh winds continue. For the forecast, high pressure north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ will continue to support moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the early part of the week, while the weak cold front washes out across the northern waters just south of 30N. New northerly swell behind the front will push south of 30N late today through the early part of the week, building seas to 8-11 ft north of 23N between Baja California and 128W. Meanwhile, southerly swell will continue to propagate through the waters south of 10N through today before decaying, with seas up to around 8 ft. $$ Lewitsky