000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290247 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered near 13.9N 98.7W at 29/0300 UTC moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 16 ft. A well defined cluster of numerous strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 60 nm of the center of Agatha. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere from 08N to 17N between 90W and 103W. Agatha is moving slowly toward the northwest and it should move erratically overnight, followed by a northeastward turn later on Sun. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sun and make landfall there on Mon. Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sun, and further intensification is anticipated up until landfall on Mon. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico by Sun and continue through Tue. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. Please refer to your local meteorological agency for more details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave that was located near 91W a few hours ago has become absorbed into the outer circulation of Agatha. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 09N79W to 14N94W, then resumes west of Agatha near 14N102W to 11N115W to 07N130W to 09N138W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N138W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 77W and 84W, from 08N to 15N between 103W and 123W, from 06N to 09N between 123W and 129W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha. A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the offshore waters well to the northwest of Agatha. A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of SW Arizona and SE California to across the Baja California Peninsula. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to locally fresh NNW winds offshore Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere outside of the influence of Agatha, except moderate to fresh in the central and northern Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mixed southerly and NW swell outside of the influence of Agatha, except 3-5 ft offshore Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California. Satellite imagery indicates some patchy stratus just beyond the coastal waters from near Punta Eugenia northward, with some encroaching on Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. For the forecast, aside from the evolution and effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will remain moderate to fresh through the weekend and into early next week, occasionally fresh to strong near Punta Eugenia northward Sun night and near Cabo San Lucas Mon night. Meanwhile, a brief surge of fresh to strong SW-W winds is forecast in the central Gulf of California tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside of Agatha. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late Sun through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters. Farther offshore, Gentle to moderate S-SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Ecuador, and 3-5 ft range elsewhere offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the Pacific coast of Colombia and adjacent areas inland, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere offshore. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Wed morning. A surge of fresh to strong SW winds will move into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from the west Wed afternoon through Thu. Large seas associated with Tropical Storm Agatha, forecast to become a hurricane Sun, just west of the area, will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala beginning Sun. Elsewhere, moderate seas in S-SW swell will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 100W. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure near the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, except gentle to moderate north of 28N and west of 125W closest to the ridge axis, and from 11N to 20N between 102W and 117W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. South of 10N between 98W and 130W, reinforcing southerly swell and the locally fresh southerly winds are supporting seas in the 7-8 ft range, except to 9 ft south of the Equator and west of 105W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range north of 17N between 118W and 130W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in mixed northerly and southerly swell, locally to 8 ft in the west-central waters where the locally fresh winds continue. For the forecast, high pressure will strengthen slightly this weekend into early next week, supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Reinforcing southerly swell will continue to propagate through the waters south of 10N through the remainder of the weekend. Seas will continue to be up to around 8 ft from 10N to 17N and west of 132W through the remainder of the weekend due to continuing locally fresh trades. New northerly swell will push south of 30N late Sun into early next week building seas to 8-11 ft north of 23N between Baja California and 128W. $$ Lewitsky