000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Agatha is centered near 13.8N 98.1W at 2100 UTC moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 13 ft within 30 nm across the northeast semicircle. A well defined cluster of numerous strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 90 nm in the north semicircle, while scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of center. Agatha has been wobbling toward the northwest today, and is expected to maintain a slow NW to N motion tonight, then a turn toward the northeast and begin to accelerate on Sun. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico as a hurricane late Sun and move near or over the southern coast of Mexico on Mon. Environmental conditions are favorable for steady strengthening prior to landfall, and rapid intensification is forecast tonight through Mon. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico on Sun and continue through Tue. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer to your local meteorological agency for more details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 91W north of 07N, moving slowly W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the Pacific waters from 09N to inland portions of Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Chiapas, Mexico between 88W and 95W. This tropical wave is forecast to become partially absorbed into the circulation of Tropical Storm Agatha in the next day or so and is becoming difficult to distinguish it between the larger circulation associated with Agatha. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 10N73W to 08N80W to 10N94W, then resumes west of Tropical Storm Agatha near 12.5N101W to 10.5N118W to 10N120W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09.5N121W to 08N127W to 09.5N136W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between the coast of Colombia and 88W, and N of 09N between 88W and 95W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 13.5N between 99W and 121W, and from 08N to 11N between 138W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm N and 90 nm S of ITCZ between 122W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha. A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the offshore waters well to the northwest of Agatha, along 140W. A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of SW Arizona and SE California to across the northern Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to locally fresh NNW winds offshore of Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere outside of the influence of Agatha, except moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mixed SW and NW swell outside of the influence of Agatha, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, and locally 4 ft in the northern Gulf. Observations across much of coastal Mexico continue to report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico and across Baja California Sur. For the forecast, aside from the evolution and effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will remain moderate to fresh through the weekend and into early next week as high pressure builds modestly into the region. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside of Agatha. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late Sun through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Agatha. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters, with gap winds of 10 to 15 kt offshore of the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua. Farther offshore, Gentle to moderate SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in SW swell, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the Pacific coast of Colombia and adjacent areas inland. Clusters of scattered thunderstorms are elsewhere across the offshore waters from the Gulf of Fonseca westward. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Wed. Larger seas associated with Tropical Storm Agatha, forecast to become a hurricane Sun morning, and just west of the area, will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala early next week. Elsewhere, moderate seas in SW swell will persist through the next several days, with new cross equatorial SW swell arriving late Sun through the beginning of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 100W. A few weak areas of low pressure are noted along the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressures to the south is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough, and locally fresh from 09N to 16N west of 130W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. South of 10N between 100W and 125W, newly arrived southerly swell and fresh southerly winds are creating seas in the 7-8 ft range, except to 9 ft near 03.4S. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in mixed northerly and southerly swell, locally to 8 ft in the west-central waters where the locally fresh winds continue. For the forecast, high pressure will strengthen slightly this weekend into early next week, supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Reinforcing southerly swell will continue to propagate through the waters south of 10N building seas to 7-9 ft today through the weekend. Seas will be up to around 8 ft from 05N to 15N and west of 130W due to freshening trades through the weekend. New northerly swell will push south of 30N late Sun into early next week building seas to 8-11 ft north of 22N between Baja California and 129W. $$ Stripling