000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat May 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Agatha is centered near 12.9N 98.1W at 28/0900 UTC moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the southeast semicircle, and within 75 nm in the northwest semicircle. Agatha is moving toward the west and a turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sun. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sun and move near or over the southern coast of Mexico on Mon. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sun. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico by Sun and continue through Tue. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer to your local meteorological agency for more details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 89W/90W north of 07N, moving slowly W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 86W and 89W with similar deep convection inland over western Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. This tropical wave is forecast to get absorbed into the circulation of Tropical Storm Agatha in the next day or so. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 08N78W to 10N87W to 13N95W, then resumes west of Tropical Storm Agatha near 12N102W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N119W to 08N123W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N123W to 07N126W to 10N134W to 1012 mb low pressure near 09N137.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07.5N between the coast of Colombia and 80W, from 07N to 13N between 101W and 121W, from 06.5N to 09.5N between 130W and 133W, and from 06.5N to 10.5N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Agatha. A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the offshore waters northwest of Agatha. A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of SW Arizona and SE California to across the northern Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds offshore of Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere outside of the influence of Agatha, except locally fresh in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mixed SW and NW swell outside of the influence of Agatha, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, locally 4 ft in the northern Gulf. Observations across much of coastal Mexico also report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico. Early morning satellite imagery shows stratus encroaching on Baja California Norte. For the forecast, aside from the evolution and effects of Agatha, winds offshore Baja California will remain moderate to fresh through the weekend and into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside of Agatha. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late Sun through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Agatha. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters, except for moderate gap winds offshore of the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua. Farther offshore, Gentle to moderate SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in SW swell, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the Pacific coast of Colombia and adjacent areas inland. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible elsewhere across the offshore waters, especially near the tropical wave described above. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Wed. Larger seas associated with Tropical Storm Agatha, forecast to become a hurricane Sun afternoon, just west of the area may propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala early next week. Elsewhere, moderate seas in SW swell will persist through the next several days, with new cross equatorial SW swell arriving late Sun through the beginning of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 100W. A few weak areas of low pressure are noted along the monsoon trough with attendant small troughs. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressures to the south is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough, locally fresh from 10N to 20N west of 130W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. South of 03N between 100W and 125W, newly arrived southerly swell is supporting seas in the 6-8 ft range, except to 9 ft near 03.4S. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in mixed northerly and southerly swell, locally to 8 ft in the west-central waters where the locally fresh winds are. For the forecast, high pressure will strengthen slightly this weekend into early next week, supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Reinforcing southerly swell will continue to propagate through the waters south of 10N building seas to 7-9 ft today through the weekend. Seas will be up to around 8 ft from 05N to 15N and west of 130W due to freshening trades through the weekend. New northerly swell will push south of 30N late Sun into early next week building seas to 8-11 ft north of 22N between Baja California and 129W. $$ Lewitsky