000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280253 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat May 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly formed Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 12.8N 97.9W at 28/0300 UTC moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently 10 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the southeast semicircle with scattered moderate convection within 90 nm in the southwest semicircle. The depression is moving toward the west and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sat, followed by a slow turn to the north later this weekend and then a slightly faster northeastward motion on Mon. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to approach the coast of southern Mexico on Mon. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm early Sat and a hurricane on Sun. Tropical Depression One-E is expected produce heavy rains over portions of the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, and eastern Guerrero through Tuesday night. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible over portions of the southern Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco. Refer to your national meteorological agency for more details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 89W north of 07N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 86W and 92W with similar deep convection inland over far NW Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from western Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N90W to near Tropical Depression One-E at 13N98W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N118W to 08.5N124W to 10N132W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N132W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N137.5W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia, from 06N to 13.5N between 99W and 117W, and from 07N to 11N between 124W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on newly formed Tropical Depression One-E. A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the offshore waters northwest of Tropical Depression One-E. A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of SW Arizona and SE California to across the northern Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds offshore of Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere outside of the influence of Tropical Depression One-E. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mixed SW and NW swell outside of the influence of Tropical Depression One-E, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Observations across much of coastal Mexico also report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico. For the forecast, Winds offshore Baja California will remain moderate to fresh through the weekend and into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside of Tropical Depression One-E. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late Sun through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on newly formed Tropical Depression One-E. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters, except for moderate gap winds offshore of the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua. Farther offshore, Gentle to moderate SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in SW swell, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the Pacific coast of Colombia and adjacent areas inland, with similar activity across the majority of the offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Wed. Larger seas associated with Tropical Depression One-E just west of the area may propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala early next week. Elsewhere, moderate seas in SW swell will persist through the next several days, with new cross equatorial SW swell arriving late Sun through the beginning of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is analyzed from 30N122W to 26N126W. No significant convection is noted near the trough with gentle to moderate northerly winds west of the trough. Otherwise, high pressure ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 100W. A few weak areas of low pressure are noted along the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressures to the south is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W, locally fresh from 10N to 20N west of 130W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N, and 5-7 ft elsewhere north of the equator in mixed northerly and southerly swell, locally to 8 ft in the west-central waters where the local fresh winds are. South of the equator, newly arrived southerly swell is supporting seas in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will strengthen slightly this weekend into early next week while the trough in the northern waters dissipates, supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Reinforcing southerly swell will propagate through the waters south of 10N or so building seas to 7-9 ft today through the weekend. Seas will be up to around 8 ft south of 15N and west of 130W due to freshening trades through the weekend. New northerly swell will push south of 30N late Sun into early next week building seas to 8-11 ft north of 22N between Baja California and 129W. $$ Lewitsky