000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri May 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of 1008 mb low pressure located roughly 250 nm S-SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, near 13N97W, continue to show signs of gradually improved organization today. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring in clusters and short bands within 210 nm E and 180 nm W of the broad low. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so. Further development of this system will be possible over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt, and interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next few days. In addition, the low is expected to produce gale force winds across the eastern semicircle of the low by around 1200 UTC Sun. Increasing winds and seas are being seen across the offshore waters of southern Mexico today and will continue through the weekend. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 85W from 07N to 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 16N between 80W and 87W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to low pres near 13N97W 1008 mb to low pres near 10.5N118W 1010 mb to low pres near 09N137W 1011 mb. The ITCZ extends from 09N137W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 81W and 88W, and within 90 nm either side of the trough and ITCZ between 125W and 140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14.5N between 88W and 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on the gale warning and potential first tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season. Weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered well offshore near 25N124W, and extends a ridge eastward to near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail from offshore Baja California southward across the offshore waters to 17N. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere west of 98W and the area of low pressure located south of Tehuantepec. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Mexico and west of 98W, and 6-9 ft south through southwest of Tehuantepec. Seas at 3 ft or less prevail in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Vary active convection persists offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with the low pressure area, and generally covers the area along the monsoon trough between 90W and 103W. Observations across much of coastal Mexico also report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico. For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible tropical cyclone, and its gale force winds on Sun, winds offshore Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh this evening through the weekend and into early next week as high pressure builds modestly across the region. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside impact areas from the possible tropical cyclone. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late Sun into Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on the first possible tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters, except for moderate gap winds offshore of the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua. Farther offshore, Gentle to moderate SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range in SW swell. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with a tropical wave is impacting Costa Rica and the waters between 81W and 87W and are described above. Active convection along the monsoon trough is seen south of El Salvador and Guatemala and has also developed across the coastal zones there today. For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible tropical cyclone, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Tue night. Moderate seas in SW swell will persist through the next several days, potentially building by the middle of next week south of the monsoon trough as the winds freshen. New cross equatorial SW swell will arrive late Sun and increase offshore slightly for the beginning of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is analyzed from 31N123W to 26N127W. No significant convection is noted near the trough with gentle to moderate northerly winds west of the trough. Otherwise, high pressure of 1017 mb is located southeast of the trough near 25N124W, with 1021 mb high pressure west of the trough near 30N137W. A few weak areas of low pressure are noted along the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the highs and lower pressures to the south is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N and west of 120W near the high centers. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range mainly due to S-SW swell elsewhere across the open waters, locally to 8 ft near 10N136W where winds are locally fresh. For the forecast, high pressure will strengthen slightly this weekend into early next week while the trough in the northern waters dissipates, supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Reinforcing southerly swell will propagate through the waters south of 10N or so building seas to 7-9 ft today through the weekend. Seas will also build slightly to around 8 ft south of 15N and west of 130W due to freshening trades through the weekend. New northerly swell will push south of 30N late Sun into early next week building seas to 8-11 ft north of 22N between Baja California and 129W. $$ Stripling