000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271609 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri May 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of 1010 mb low pressure located a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, near 13N96.5W, are showing signs of organization this morning. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the broad low. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so. Further development of this system will be possible over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt, and interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next few days. In addition, the low will bring an increase in winds and seas to southern Mexico today and through the weekend. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 84.5W from 07N to 16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 11.5N E of 85.5W to the coast of Colombia. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09.5N74.5W to 10N77W to 07.5N84W to low pres near 13N96.5W 1010 mb to low pres near 11N117.5W 1010 mb to low pres near 10N135W 1011 mb. The ITCZ extends from 10N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 03.5N E of 85.5W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 15.5N between 91W and 102W, and from 08.5N to 13.5N between 102W and 111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of trough and ITCZ between 111W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on the first possible tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail from offshore Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes along 16N. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California, except moderate southerly in the northern portion. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere west of the area of low pressure located south of Tehuantepec and 98W to near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Mexico and west of 98W, and 6-8 ft south of Tehuantepec. Seas at 3 ft or less prevail in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. In addition to the convection offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec with the low pressure area, similar convection is noted across the offshore waters and along the coasts of Chiapas, Mexico and Guatemala southward to 09N, and across large portions of the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico E of 101W. Recent observations across much of coastal Mexico also report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico. Morning satellite imagery also shows typical late May areas of stratus/fog offshore of Baja California moving inland along Pacific coastal areas. For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible tropical cyclone, winds offshore Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh today through the weekend and into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside impact areas from the possible tropical cyclone. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late in the weekend into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on the first possible tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the nearshore coastal waters, except for moderate gap winds offshore of the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua. Farther offshore, moderate SW winds generally prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in SW swell. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with a tropical wave is described above. For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible tropical cyclone, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Tue night. Moderate seas in SW swell will persist through the next several days, potentially building by the middle of next week south of the monsoon trough as the winds freshen. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is analyzed from 33N123W to 26N127W. No significant convection is noted near the trough with gentle to moderate northerly winds west of the trough. Otherwise, high pressure of 1017 mb is located southeast of the trough near 23N122W, with 1021 mb high pressure west of the trough near 30N139W. Several weak areas of low pressure are noted along the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the highs and lower pressures to the south is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N and west of 120W near the high centers. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range mainly due to a S-SW swell elsewhere across the open waters, locally to 8 ft near 11N135W where winds are locally fresh. For the forecast, high pressure will strengthen slightly this weekend into early next week while the trough in the northern waters dissipates, supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Reinforcing southerly swell will propagate through the waters south of 10N or so building seas to 7-9 ft today through the weekend. Seas will also build slightly to around 8 ft south of 15N and west of 130W due to freshening trades through the weekend. New northerly swell will push south of 30N late in the weekend into early next week building seas to 8-11 ft north of 22N between Baja California and 129W. $$ Stripling