000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270724 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low Pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of 1008 mb low pressure located a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, near 12.5N95.5W, are showing signs of organization. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm in the northern semicircle of the broad low. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so. Further development of this system will be possible over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt, and interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next few days. In addition, the low will bring an increase in winds and seas to southern Mexico today and through the weekend. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W north of 03N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 84W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua at 11N86W to 1008 mb low pressure near 12.5N95.5W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N108W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N117W to 09N122W. The ITCZ extends from 09N122W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10.5N135W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 96W and 102W, and from 11N to 13N between 105W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 107W and 110W, from 10N to 13N between 115W and 118W, and from 09N to 11N between 126W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on the first possible tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail from offshore Baja California to near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California, except moderate southerly in the northern portion. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere west of the area of low pressure and 98W to near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range in S-SW swell offshore Mexico and west of 98W, with seas 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. In addition to the convection offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec with the low pressure area, similar convection is noted inland over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico. Observations across much of coastal Mexico also report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico. Overnight satellite imagery also shows typical late May areas of stratus/fog offshore Baja California moving toward coastal areas. For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible tropical cyclone, winds offshore Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh today through the weekend and into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside impact areas from the possible tropical cyclone. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late in the weekend into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features above for details on the first possible tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters, except moderate offshore of the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in SW swell. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with a tropical wave is described above. For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible tropical cyclone, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Tue night. Moderate seas in SW swell will persist through the next several days, potentially building by the middle of next week south of the monsoon trough as the winds freshen. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is analyzed from 30N123W to 25N126W. No significant convection is noted near the trough with gentle to moderate northerly winds west of the trough. Otherwise, high pressure of 1017 mb is located southeast of the trough near 24N122W, with 1020 mb high pressure west of the trough near 30N138W. Several weak areas of low pressure are noted along the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the highs and lower pressures is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N and west of 120W near the high centers. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range mainly due to a S-SW swell elsewhere across the open waters, locally to 8 ft near 11N135W where winds are locally fresh. For the forecast, high pressure will strengthen slightly this weekend into early next week while the trough in the northern waters dissipates, supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Reinforcing southerly swell will propagate through the waters south of 10N or so building seas to 7-9 ft today through the weekend. Seas will also build slightly to around 8 ft south of 15N and west of 130W due to freshening trades through the weekend. A set of northerly swell will push south of 30N late in the weekend into early next week building seas to 8-11 ft north of 22N between Baja California and 129W. $$ Lewitsky