336 AXPZ20 KNHC 262339 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2339 UTC Thu May 26 2022 Updated Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Satellite imagery shows clusters of deep convection primarily east of a surface trough that is currently south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along a position from near 15N95W to 10N94W. This convection is in the form of the scattered moderate to isolated strong type within 60 nm of 13N94W and 10N94W. Small clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted west of the trough to 100W and from 10N to 14N. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains will be possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next few days, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. In addition, the system will bring an increase in winds and seas to southern Mexico starting Fri and through the weekend. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon axis extends from a 1010 mb low over northwestern Colombia to 09N84W to 11N91W to 11N100W to low pressure near 12N109W 1011 mb to 09N120W to 08N125W to low pressure near 10N134W 1011 mb, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 104W-107W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 103W-108W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 107W-109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 77W-83W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 90W-95W, within 60 nm north of the trough between 113W- 115W, and within 30 of the trough between 122W-127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features above for details on a potential first tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season. Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters, except for a small area of moderate winds noted offshore of Los Cabos region. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is just inland the coast of southeastern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from potential impacts from the likely to form tropical cyclone, light to gentle winds west of the Baja California peninsula will become fresh northwest winds by early Fri evening, and change little into early next week. Generally, gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside impact areas from the near future tropical cyclone. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds remain across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in a southwest swell. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and just inland the coast of Central America from northern Panama to Guatemala. Scattered moderate convection is offshore Guatemala from 11N to 15N between 90W-92W. For the forecast, a surface trough south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is likely to develop low pressure system, possibly a tropical cyclone, within the next couple of days. It is expected to bring an an increase in winds and seas over the offshore waters of Guatemala on Fri, before these conditions shift westward to southeastern Mexico. Please see above for more information on the expected to develop tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will continue across the forecast waters through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure, anchored by a weak 1019 mb west of the area near 28N144W, covers the area north of about 17N and west of 130W. The pressure gradient between this area and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft due range due to a south to southwest across the area. Southerly swell is forecast to begin to propagate through the far south-central waters between 111W-120W beginning Fri evening. It should subside on Sun. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to decrease on Fri. High pressure will build across the area on Sat leading to trade winds increasing to mainly fresh speeds over the western part of the area. $$ Aguirre