000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261640 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu May 26 2022 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The morning satellite visible imagery shows that deep convection has become a bit more concentrated near a surface trough that is currently south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along a position from near 15N95W to 10N96W. This convection is in the form of the numerous moderate type from 12N to 15N between 91W-95W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is identified from 09N to 15N between 90W-95W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. This area of low pressure will bring an increase in winds and seas to southern Mexico starting Fri and into the weekend. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon axis extends from a 1011 mb low over northwestern Colombia to 12N98W to 12N109W to 10N119W to 09N130W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 102W- 105W, within 120 nm south of the the trough 105W-108W, and within 120 nm north of the trough between 104W-108W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 113W- 115W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 115W-119W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 09N between 77W-82W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Specail Features above for details on a potential first tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season. Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters, except for a small area of moderate winds noted offshore of Los Cabos region. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Aside from the potential tropical cyclone, light to gentle winds west of the Baja California peninsula will increase toward the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the remainder of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in a southwest swell. For the forecast, developing low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to bring an an increase in winds and seas over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Fri and into the weekend. Please see above for more information on the low pressure. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will continue across the forecast waters through early next week. Southwest swell will gradually decrease through today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 13N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between this area and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the area. A tropical disturbance south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is being monitored for tropical development. Shower and thunderstorm activity have diminished in associated with the disturbance that is located several hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Significant development of this disturbance is no longer anticipated as environmental conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to decrease Fri. High pressure will build again this weekend bringing an increase in winds. $$ Aguirre