000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260853
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of cloudiness 
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system 
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. 
Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this 
system. There is a medium probability of this disturbance 
developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 
high probability of development in the next 5 days. This area of 
low pressure will bring an increase in winds and seas to southern
Mexico starting late this week into the weekend. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N130W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 12N and E of 120W, and from 08N to 10N 
between 129W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on the potential for
the first tropical cyclone of the 2022 EPAC season. 

Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters,
except for a small area of moderate winds noted offshore of Los 
Cabos region. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters 
off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

Aside from the potential tropical cyclone, light to gentle winds
west of the Baja California peninsula will increase toward the 
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through 
the remainder of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the forecast waters. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell. 

For the forecast, developing low pressure south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec could result in an increase in winds and seas over
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador late this week
into the weekend. Please see above for more information on the 
low pressure. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will continue 
across the forecast waters through early next week. SW swell will
gradually decrease through today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 13N and
west of 110W. The pressure gradient between this area and lower 
pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to 
moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. 
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the area.

There are a couple of disturbances within the monsoon trough 
that are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential, one
south of Tehuantepec is discussed in the section above. The 
other disturbance is near 110W. This perturbation has a low 
probability for tropical cyclone development.

For the forecast, winds and seas will decrease through the end 
of the week. High pressure will build again this weekend bringing
an increase in winds.

$$
ERA