000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260224
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough is located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with  
scattered moderate convection in its vicinity. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
in the area, and a tropical depression is likely to form late 
this week or this weekend while the system moves west-
northwestward or northwestward at around 5 to 10 kt. There is a 
medium probability of this disturbance developing into a tropical
cyclone in the next 48 hours and a high probability of 
development in the next 5 days. This area of low pressure will 
bring an increase in winds and seas to southern Mexico starting 
late this week into the weekend. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N130W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 15N and E of 118W, and from 08N to 10N
between 127W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on the potential for
the first tropical cyclone of the 2022 EPAC season. 

Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters,
except for a small area of moderate winds found offshore the Los
Cabos region. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters
off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

Aside from the potential tropical cyclone, light to gentle winds
west of the Baja California peninsula will increase toward the 
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through 
much of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the forecast waters. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell. 

For the forecast, developing low pressure south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec could result in an increase in winds and seas over
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador late this week
into the weekend. Please see above for more on this area of low
pressure. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will continue 
across the forecast waters through early next week. SW swell will
gradually decrease through Thu morning.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 
15N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is 
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough 
and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the area.

There are a couple of disturbances within the monsoon trough 
that are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential, one
south of Tehuantepec is discussed in the section above. The 
other disturbance is near 110W. This perturbation has a low 
probability for tropical cyclone development.

For the forecast, winds and seas will decrease through the end 
of the week. High pressure will build again this weekend bringing
an increase in winds.

$$
ERA