000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252037
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough is located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the 
vicinity of this trough. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system
moves west- northwestward or northwestward at around 5 to 10 kt.
There is a medium probability of this disturbance developing 
into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a high 
probability of development in the next 5 days. This developing 
area of low pressure will bring an increase in winds and seas to 
southern Mexico starting late this week into the weekend.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N99W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted east of 
80W, from 04N to 12N between 82W and 90W, from 07N to 15N 
between 90W and 100W, and from 08N to 14N between 100W and 115W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 
115W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on the potential for
the first tropical cyclone of the 2022 EPAC season. 

Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters,
except for a small area of moderate winds found offshore the Los
Cabos region. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters
off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

Aside from the potential tropical cyclone, light to gentle winds
west of the Baja California peninsula will increase toward the 
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through 
much of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the forecast waters. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell. 

For the forecast, developing low pressure south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec could result in an increase in winds and seas over
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador late this week
into the weekend. Please see above for more on this area of low
pressure. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will continue 
across the forecast waters through early next week. SW swell will
gradually decrease through Thu morning.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 
20N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough
and west of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of
the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft west of 110W, and 6-8
ft east of 110W. 

There are a couple of disturbances within the monsoon trough 
that are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential, one
south of Tehuantepec is discussed in the section above. The 
other disturbance is near 110W. This perturbation has a low 
probability for tropical cyclone development.

For the forecast, winds and seas will decrease through the end 
of the week. High pressure will build again this weekend bringing
an increase in winds.

$$
AL