000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251443
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N99W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted east of
80W, from 03N to 11N between 84W and 91W, and from 09N to 15N 
between 91W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 125W,
and from 08N to 10N between 131W and 138W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters,
except for a small area of moderate winds found offshore the Los
Cabos region. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters
off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

A surface trough is located a few hundred miles south of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of this trough. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or 
this weekend while the system moves west- northwestward or 
northwestward at around 5 to 10 kt. This developing area of low 
pressure will bring an increase in winds and seas to southern 
Mexico starting late this week into the weekend.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula will increase toward the weekend. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail elsewhere through much of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough,
with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are
in the 6-8 ft range in SW swell. 

For the forecast, developing low pressure south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec could result in an increase in winds and seas over
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador late this week
into the weekend. Elsewhere, light to occasionally moderate
breezes will continue across the forecast waters through early
next week. SW swell will gradually decrease through Thu morning.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 
20N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough
and west of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of
the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft west of 110W, and 6-8
ft east of 110W. 

There are a couple of disturbances within the monsoon trough 
that are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential, one near
94W is discussed in the section above. The other disturbance is 
near 110W. This perturbation has a low probability for tropical 
cyclone development.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds in the deep tropics
are expected to diminish today, along with the seas. Elsewhere, 
winds and seas will decrease through the end of the week. High
pressure will build again this weekend bringing an increase in  
winds.

$$
AL