000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250913
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Panama near 
10N85W to 12N110W to 10N130W and to 07N140W and beyond. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 
15N and E of 123W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure located well to the northwest of the area maintains
light to gentle NW winds over the waters west of the Baja 
Peninsula. The exception is a small area of moderate to locally
fresh winds found offshore the Los Cabos region. Seas are 4-7 ft.
Gentle to light winds are also noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
along with seas of 1-3 ft. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore
waters, light to gentle winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

A surface trough located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. This disturbance has a low probability for 
tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Afterwards, 
environmental conditions will become more conducive for tropical 
cyclogenesis, and there is a high probability for tropical 
cyclone development within the next 5 days. This developing area 
of low pressure will bring an increase in winds and seas to southern
Mexico starting late this week into the weekend.

Elsewhere in the forecast, light to gentle winds west of the 
Baja California peninsula will increase toward the weekend as the
pressure gradient tightens. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
through the rest of the week in the remainder of the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Recent satellite-derived data captured gentle to moderate S-SW 
winds south of the monsoon trough. However, stronger winds were
noted near the areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Light 
to gentle winds were present north of the monsoon trough. Seas 
of 3-6 ft are occurring in these waters.

For the forecast, light to occasionally moderate breezes will
continue across the forecast waters through early next week.
Seas will build to near 8 ft this morning well southwest of
Nicaragua, before decreasing below 8 ft by Thu morning. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge well north of the area dominates the
region, allowing for fairly tranquil weather conditions north of
the deep tropics. A surface trough located along 110W is
producing disorganized convection and a recent scatterometer
satellite pass show moderate to fresh SW winds to the east of the
trough axis. Seas of 6-9 ft are found from 04N to 13N and between
90W and 103W. Northerly swell is also producing seas up to 8 ft
N of 24N and between 122W and 130W. The pressure gradient between
the high pressure and the monsoon trough results in moderate to
fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to 17N and W of 125W. Seas 
in the region are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

There are a couple of disturbances within the monsoon trough 
that are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential, one near
94W is discussed in the section above. The other disturbance is 
near 110W. This perturbation has a low probability for tropical 
cyclone development.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds in the deep tropics
are expected to diminish today, along with the seas. Elsewhere, 
winds and seas will decrease through the end of the week. High
pressure will build again this weekend causing winds to increase.

$$
Delgado