000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250312
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0255 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1007 mb low pres 
near 13N109W and continues to 09N125W and to 07N139W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 07N139W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 13N and E of
102W. Similar convection is noted from 08N to 15N and between
104W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Primarily light to gentle breezes are found across the Mexican
offshore waters, including most of waters west of Baja California
and the Gulf of California. An exception is present off the Los
Cabos region where moderate westerly winds prevail. Seas of 4-7
ft due to NW swell are affecting the waters off north of Punta
Eugenia, while 1-4 ft are noted elsewhere in the discussion area.

There are two perturbations embedded within the monsoon trough. 
A disturbance is located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near
95W, producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This perturbation has a low probability for 
tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Afterwards, 
environmental conditions will become more conducive for tropical 
cyclogenesis, and there is a high probability for tropical 
cyclone development within the next 5 days. This developing area 
of low pressure will bring an increase in winds and seas to the
offshore waters of southern Mexico starting late this week into 
the weekend.

Elsewhere for the forecast, light to gentle winds west of the 
Baja California peninsula will increase toward the weekend as the
pressure gradient tightens. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through much of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are prevalent south of the monsoon
trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough, 
except moderate offshore Nicaragua. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon 
trough will diminish Wednesday and Thursday and continue mainly
light to gentle into the weekend.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure system near 35N137W continues to 
dominate the remainder of the area, maintaining fairly tranquil 
weather conditions north of the deep tropics. Moderate to 
occasionally fresh northerly winds are noted N of 25N and between
121W and 133W. Seas in this region are near 8 ft. 

A surface trough is located along 133W, from 05N to 13N. A few 
showers are noted near the trough axis. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting 
gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft north of 10N and 
west of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough and moderate to fresh SW winds to the south. Seas
over this area are in the 6-8 ft range. 

There are a couple of perturbations within the monsoon trough
that are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential, one 
near 95W is discussed in the section above. The other
perturbation is near 109W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within the vicinity of this perturbation. This 
perturbation has a low probability for tropical cyclone 
development.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
diminish tonight, with associated seas subsiding. Elsewhere, 
winds and seas will continue to decrease through the end of the 
week before increasing again this weekend.

$$
DELGADO