000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242031
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N103W to 10N125W. 
The ITCZ continues from 10N125W to 10N128W. It resumes from 
08N134W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted North of 04N East of 85W, from 06N to 14N between 90W 
and 95W, and from 07N to 13N between 95W and 118W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 128W and 
135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the discussion
waters, except off Cabo San Lucas where moderate winds prevail. 
Seas are in the 5-8 ft range off Baja California Norte, and 4-5 
ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 1-3
ft range over the Gulf of California.

There are two perturbations embedded within the monsoon trough. 
One is near 95W, with scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection within the vicinity of this perturbation. This 
perturbation has a low probability for tropical cyclone 
development in the next 48 hours. Afterwards, environmental 
conditions will become more conducive for tropical cyclogenesis, 
and there is a high probability for tropical cyclone development 
within the next 5 days. This developing area of low pressure will
bring an increase in winds and seas offshore from Oaxaca and 
Chiapas, Mexico the end of the week into the weekend.

Elsewhere for the forecast, light to gentle winds west of the 
Baja California peninsula will increase toward the weekend. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through much of 
the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough
with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough, except
moderate offshore Nicaragua. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon 
trough will diminish Wednesday. Long- period southerly swell over
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will reach 
the offshore waters of Colombia and Central America tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of 15N and west of
115W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ near 132W, with 
scattered moderate showers in its vicinity. The pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting
gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft north of 10N and
west of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of 28N 
between 120W and 130W with seas to 9 ft. Light to gentle winds 
are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SE 
winds are south of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh SW winds are south
of the monsoon trough. Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft 
range. 

There are a couple of perturbations within the monsoon trough
that are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential, one 
near 95W is discussed in the section above. The other
perturbation is near 109W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within the vicinity of this perturbation. This 
perturbation has a low probability for tropical cyclone 
development.

The moderate to fresh northerly winds will diminish tonight, 
with associated seas subsiding. Elsewhere, winds and seas will 
continue to decrease through the end of the week before 
increasing again this weekend.

$$
AL