000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241442
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N111W to 07N121W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N121W to 08N130W. It resumes from 08N133W
to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted North of 05N East of 85W, from 06N to 14N between 90W and
97W, and from 08N to 13N between 100W and 117W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 130W and
140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the open waters
off Mexico, except fresh off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle winds 
prevail over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range
off Baja California Norte, and 4-5 ft elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, gentle winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula will increase toward the weekend. Fresh W to NW winds 
will pulse near Cabo San Lucas tonight. Moderate W to NW winds 
will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through
this afternoon, then diminish slightly this evening. Developing 
low pressure might bring higher winds and seas offshore from 
Oaxaca and Chiapas, Mexico this weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough
with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough, except
moderate offshore Nicaragua. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon 
trough will diminish Wednesday. Long- period southerly swell over
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will reach 
the offshore waters of Colombia and Central America tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of 15N and west of
115W. There are a couple of perturbations within the monsoon
trough, one near 95W and the other near 112W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within the vicinity of these
perturbations. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ near 132W,
with scattered moderate showers in its vicinity. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh winds 
are noted north of 28N between 120W and 130W with seas to 9 ft. 
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate SE winds are south of the ITCZ. Moderate to
fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas over this
area are in the 6-8 ft range.  

The fresh northerly winds will diminish today, with associated 
seas subsiding. Elsewhere, winds and seas will continue to 
decrease through the end of the week before increasing again this
weekend.

$$
AL