056 AXPZ20 KNHC 241013 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica across 12N105W to 09N124W. An ITCZ continues from 09N124W to 10N129W, and from 08N133W to beyond 140W at 06N. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 102W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N between 80W and 96W, and from 05N to 11N west of 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A mid-level low near Tabasco, Mexico is triggering heavy showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Chiapas. A 1009 mb low pressure near the Channel Islands of California, and its associated surface trough near Guadalupe Island are preventing the NE Pacific ridge from building fully into the Baja California Norte offshore waters. This pattern is yielding weaker NNW winds at gentle to moderate speed across the offshore waters of Baja. Fresh W to NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas which curl cyclonically around the southern tip of the peninsula. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in light to moderate NNW swell prevail off the Baja California peninsula. Moderate W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in light southerly swell are evident across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the mid-level low will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms near Chiapas, Mexico through Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh NNW winds west of the Baja California peninsula will become gentle to moderate later this morning, then increase toward the weekend. Fresh W to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas are going to decrease to moderate by noon, then pulse to fresh again tonight. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through this afternoon, then subside to between gentle and moderate by this evening. During the weekend, a developing low pressure might bring higher winds and seas offshore from Oaxaca and Chiapas, Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A couple of mid-level troughs can be seen on the latest WV satellite loop to be over southeastern Mexico and Guatemala, and over Costa Rica and Panama. They are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific coast from Guatemala southeastward to Panama, and in the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle SE to SW winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are found offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail in the offshore waters from Nicaragua southward to Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, the mid-level troughs will sustain active weather through this afternoon. By this evening, shower and thunderstorm coverage should gradually increase and spread into the offshore waters from Nicaragua to Colombia, starting Wed as a monsoon trough strengthens. Fresh gap winds off the Papagayo region will subside to moderate later this morning. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds offshore from Ecuador, the Galapagos Islands, and across the outer offshore waters from Nicaragua to Colombia should subside to between gentle and moderate by Wed evening. New long-period southerly swell from the Southern Hemisphere will arrive near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands this evening, then at the offshore waters of Colombia and Central America on Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1028 mb high pressure across the NE Pacific near 34N137W, to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh NE to ENE trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft north of 10N and west of 125W. Fresh to locally strong N winds with 7 to 9 ft seas exist north of 27N between 120W and 128W. Gentle to moderate NNE trade winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere from just north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 25N between 115W and 125W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W. The fresh to locally strong N trade winds north of 27N will gradually subside to between gentle and moderate by tonight. Seas in this area will also decrease and reach 6 to 7 ft by late tonight. The NE to ENE winds and seas west of 120W will also drop, become gentle to moderate and 5 to 7 ft by late tonight. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02N to 11N east of 111W should should continue thru Wed afternoon. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W will change little through Thu. Then, a new cross equatorial swell arriving Fri should cause seas to gradually build. $$ Chan