666 
AXPZ20 KNHC 240504
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue May 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There is no tropical wave in the East Pacific based on the 
latest analysis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica across 12N105W
to 09N123W. An ITCZ continues from 09N123W to 10N127W, and from
08N131W to beyond 140W at 07N. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 100W and 111W. 
Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 14W between 
111W and 120W, and from 05N to 10N west of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak 1011 mb low pressure near the Channel Islands of
California, and its associated surface trough near Guadalupe 
Island are preventing the NE Pacific ridge from building fully 
into the Baja Norte offshore waters. This pattern is yielding 
weaker NNW winds at gentle to moderate across the offshore 
waters of Baja. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail near 
Cabo San Lucas which curl cyclonically around the southern tip 
of the peninsula. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in light to moderate NNW 
swell prevail off the Baja California peninsula. Moderate W to NW
winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in light southerly swell are evident 
across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are in the Gulf 
of California.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NNW winds west of 
the Baja California peninsula will become gentle to moderate Tue 
morning, before increasing toward the weekend. Fresh W to NW 
winds near Cabo San Lucas are going to become moderate Tue 
morning, then pulse to fresh again Tue night. Moderate to locally
fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to 
offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. Light NW swell west of the
Baja California peninsula, and light southerly swell off the 
central and southern Mexico coast will persist through midweek, 
then increase toward the weekend. During the weekend, a 
developing low pressure might bring higher winds and seas 
offshore from Oaxaca and Chiapas, Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A couple of mid-level troughs can be seen on the latest WV
satellite loop to be over southeaster Mexico and Guatemala, and 
over Costa Rica and Panama. They are triggering scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific coast from 
Guatemala southeastward to Panama, and in the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
with 4 to 6 ft seas are fond offshore from Guatemala to Colombia.
Moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft
prevail in the offshore waters of Ecuador and near the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, the mid-level troughs will sustain sporadic 
showers and thunderstorms through Tue night. Then this activity 
will gradually increase and spread into the offshore waters of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama starting Wed as a monsoon 
trough strengthens. Fresh gap winds off the Papagayo region will 
subside to moderate Tue morning. Moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds offshore from Ecuador and near the Galapagos 
Islands will spread northward into the outer offshore waters of 
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica Tue morning. New long-period 
southerly swell from the Southern Hemisphere will arrive near 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Tue evening, then at the 
offshore waters of Colombia and Central America on Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high 
pressure across the NE Pacific near 34N137W, to just north of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 115W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the
ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh NE to 
ENE trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft north of 10N and west of 
120W. Fresh to locally strong N trade winds with 7 to 9 ft seas 
exist north of 27N between 120W and 128W. Gentle to moderate NNE 
trade winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere from just 
north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 25N between 115W and 123W. 
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are noted 
south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W. 

The fresh to locally strong N trade winds north of 27N will
gradually subside to between gentle and moderate by Tue night. 
Seas in this area will also decrease and reach 6 to 7 ft by late 
Tue night. The NE to ENE winds and seas west of 120W will also 
drop, become gentle to moderate and 5 to 7 ft by late Tue night.
Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02N to
10N west of 87W should increase to between moderate and fresh 
Tue morning thru Wed afternoon. Seas between the Galapagos 
Islands and 110W will change little through Tue as new cross 
equatorial swell persist through Mon. This swell along with 
increasing monsoonal winds will cause seas to build between 7 and
8 ft late Tue through Wed and shift northward of 05N.

$$

Chan