381 AXPZ20 KNHC 232212 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2110 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Recent satellite imagery, microwave derived precipitable water products, and model diagnostic tools indicate that no synoptic scale feature can be detected moving westward across the Tehuantepec region. In fact broad low to middle level cyclonic turning remains nearly stationary across the area from 08N to 22N between 87W and 95W. The tropical wave moving through this region appears to have become absorbed in this circulation across Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula, and has not been depicted on the 1800 UTC surface map. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 14.5N between 88W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N71.5W to 11N89W to 09N98W to 13.5N108W to 09.5N121. The ITCZ reaches from 09.5N121W to 11N128W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 03.5N E of 83W, and from 06.5N to 14N between 94W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 14.5N between 88W and 94W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05.5N to 90N between 125W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1013 mb weak low pressure center has developed offshore of the southern California coast, across Baja California Norte, and is preventing the NE Pacific ridge from building fully into the Baja Norte offshore waters. This pressure pattern is yielding gentle to moderate NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja, while moderate to locally fresh to NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas and curl cyclonically around the southern tip of the peninsula. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NNW swell prevail off the Baja California peninsula. Moderate W to NW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NNW winds west of the Baja California peninsula this evening will become gentle to moderate Tue through late Thus as weak low pres persists off of southern California. Winds will increase into weekend as high pressure returns. Fresh W to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas will decrease to moderate by Tue morning, then pulse to fresh again Tue evening and night. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico coast will persist through midweek, then diminish toward the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Elongated low level cyclonic turning can be seen in satellite imagery covering much of the Yucatan Peninsula extending SSW across Central America and into the Pacific waters near 10N92W. The tropical wave moving through this region has become absorbed in this circulation. Farther east, converging monsoonal winds are leading to scattered moderate to strong convection from the Colombian waters along 04N, northward across the Gulf of Panama, and much of Panama and Costa Rica, and into the NW portions of Colombia. Gentle to moderate W to SW winds prevail across most of the area E of 90W, where seas of 4 to 5 ft are found in the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia. Moderate to fresh southerly winds with 6 to 8 ft seas prevail off the Ecuador coast and near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist near the coast and across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least Wed as a trough of low pressure persists in the vicinity. A mid-level trough across the southern Caribbean will help to sustain very active weather along the coast of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through tonight, and then shift N and NW Tue as a monsoon trough strengthens. Fresh gap winds off the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh again Tue evening. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds offshore from Ecuador will spread westward to near the Galapagos Islands by this evening, then northward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica Tue morning. New long-period SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will arrive on Tue, then gradually subside toward the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high pressure across the NE Pacific near 34N138W, to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft north of 25N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident elsewhere from just north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 23N and west of 114W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W. An increasing pressure gradient between the surface ridge and a developing low offshore of southern California is going to produce fresh to strong NNW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas well off Baja California Norte from tonight into Tue morning, and spread across the waters N of 28N between 120W and 130W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft will persist north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of the Baja California/central Mexico offshore waters through Tue afternoon. By Tue night, N to NE winds should subside to between gentle and moderate, and seas to between 6 and 7 ft as the high pressure weakens. Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02N to 10N west of 87W should increase to between moderate and fresh Tue morning thru Wed afternoon. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W will change little through Tue as new cross equatorial swell persist through Mon. This swell along with increasing monsoonal winds will cause seas to build between 7 and 8 ft late Tue through Wed and shift northward of 05N. $$ Stripling