000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231614 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon May 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave continues south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along about 94W to 05N, and is moving W at 5 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 10N to the coast from Chiapas, Mexico to El Salvador. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 11.5N between 91W and 103W. Little westward propagation of this wave is presented noted, and this wave appears as though it is becoming absorbed within the elongated low to middle level cyclonic circulation across Central America. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N72W to 09.5N83W to 12N95W to 12.5N107W to 09N128. The ITCZ reaches from 09N130W to beyond 140W at 07N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 08N E of 82W, and from 07N to 13.5N between 94W and 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to the coast at 14.5N between 88.5W and 94W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends southwestward from the southern California coast, across Baja California Norte, and is preventing the NE Pacific ridge from building fully into the Baja Norte offshore waters. This is yielding gentle to moderate NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja Norte, while moderate to locally fresh to NW winds prevail south of Punta Eugenia to near Cabo San Lucas and curl cyclonically around the southern tip of the peninsula. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NNW swell exist off the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. Gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NNW winds west of the Baja California peninsula will become gentle to moderate Tue through late Thus as weak low pres persists off of southern California. Winds will increase into weekend as high pressure returns. Fresh W to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas will decrease to moderate later this morning, then pulse to fresh again tonight. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico coast will persist through midweek, then diminish toward the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A low level trough extends northeastward from a weak surface circulation off the El Salvador coast near 11N91W across El Salvador to the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Convergent southerly winds to its east are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador from 10N to the coast, and then continuing NE across land to western Honduras and the Gulf of Honduras. Aided by a mid-level trough in the vicinity, modest monsoonal winds are producing scattered thunderstorms across the waters N of 04N to the coasts of eastern Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found in the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail off the Ecuador coast and near the Galapagos Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional weather near Chiapas, Mexico and Guatemala. For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist near the coast and across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least Wed as a trough of low pressure persists in the vicinity. A mid-level trough will sustain very active weather along the coast of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through tonight, and might spread into the offshore waters starting Tue as a monsoon trough strengthens. Fresh gap winds off the Papagayo region will become moderate later this morning but will pulse to fresh again tonight. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds offshore from Ecuador will spread westward to near the Galapagos Islands by this evening, then northward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica Tue morning. Long-period southerly swell from the Southern Hemisphere will arrive on Tue, then gradually subside toward the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high pressure across the NE Pacific near 34N138W, to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 118W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining gentle to moderate winds with locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident elsewhere from just north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 16N and west of 114W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the area. An increasing pressure gradient between the surface ridge and a developing low offshore of southern California is going to produce fresh to strong NNW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas well off Baja California Norte from tonight into Tue morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft will persist north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of the Baja California/central Mexico offshore waters through Tue afternoon. By Tue night, N to NE winds should subside to between gentle and moderate, and seas to between 6 and 7 ft as the high pressure weakens. Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02N to 10N west of 87W should increase to between moderate and fresh Tue morning thru Wed afternoon. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W will change little through Tue as new cross equatorial swell persist through Mon. This swell along with increasing monsoonal winds will cause seas to build between 7 and 8 ft late Tue through Wed. $$ Stripling