000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230526 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends southward from the coast of Chiapas, Mexico into the Pacific Ocean to near 04N93W, and is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 09N to the coast of Chiapas and Guatemala between 89W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica across 12N100W to a 1013 mb low pres near 12N116W 1014 mb. An ITCZ reaches from 08N125W to beyond 140W at 07N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 105W and 123W, and also from 05N to 10N between 123W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends from the coast of southern California southwestward across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, and continues to prevent the NE Pacific ridge from building fully into the Baja offshore waters. This is yielding gentle to moderate NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja, while moderate to fresh W to NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas and curl cyclonically around the southern tip of the peninsula. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NNW swell exist off the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. Gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NNW winds west of the Baja California peninsula will become gentle to moderate Tue, then increase again next weekend. Fresh W to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas will decrease to moderate Mon, then pulse to fresh Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico coast will persist through midweek, then diminish toward the next weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A surface trough extends northeastward from a weak circulation off the El Salvador coast near 11N91W across El Salvador to the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Convergent southerly winds to its east are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Aided by a mid-level trough in the vicinity, modest monsoonal winds are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast of Panama, Colombia and nearby waters. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found in the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail off the Ecuador coast and near the Galapagos Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional weather near Guatemala and El Salvador. For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist near the coast and across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least Wed as a trough of low pressure persists in the vicinity. Shower and thunderstorm activity might increase in the offshore waters from Nicaragua to Colombia starting Tue as a monsoon trough strengthens. Fresh gap winds off the Papagayo region are going to become moderate Mon morning but will pulse to fresh again on Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds offshore from Ecuador will spread westward to near the Galapagos Islands Mon evening, then northward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica Tue morning. Long-period southerly swell from the Southern Hemisphere will arrive on Tue, then gradually subside toward the next weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high pressure across the NE Pacific near 34N136W, to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 118W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining gentle to moderate with locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft north of 16N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident elsewhere from just north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 16N and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the area. An increasing pressure gradient between the surface ridge and a developing low offshore of southern California is going to produce fresh to strong NNW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas well off Baja California Norte from Mon night into Tue morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft will persist north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of the Baja California/central Mexico offshore waters through Tue afternoon. By Tue night, N to NE winds should subside to between gentle and moderate, and seas to between 6 and 7 ft as the high pressure weakens. Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02N to 10N west of 87W should increase to between moderate and fresh Tue morning thru Wed afternoon. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W should change little through Tue as new cross equatorial swell should persist through Mon. This swell and increasing monsoonal winds on Tue will raise seas to 7 to 8 ft late Tue through Wed. $$ Chan